Sunday, December 15, 2013

Great before Greatness



There seems to be this growing trend in boxing, fighters proclaiming their greatness before having ever proved it. Boxing has a history of fighters being hyped, usually by promoters to put asses in seats and thats understandable. But more recently it seems that some fighters are being marketed like products to the public at large. We see these guys with padded records and a bunch of knockouts, to the casual fan that is impressive, but to the more dedicated fan it is not. Deontay Wilder is one example, he is hyped as the next great american heavyweight, and they parade his record as if it is some feat, all wins by knockout, yea, well against who? Gennady Golovkin has a title but again we have to look at the quality of his opposition, he struggled against shopworn Kassim Ouma, and has for the most part dined on smaller fighters moving up in weight. I am not saying that these guys wont actually produce, but they have not produced thus far.

Last Saturday we seen a myth debunked in Adrien Broner, and for the exact reason that he believed in his own hype. He seemed to have adopted the Floyd Mayweather attitude, lifestyle, and mouth. However, Floyd has earned that right because he has continually backed it up against high level opposition, Broner has not. He has fought sub par competition thus far, aside from De Leon when many thought he lost that fight. Maidana brutalized Broner for 12 hard fought rounds and put Broner down twice. To his credit he was able to fight on, so he is tough, but in my opinion his mouth far exceeds his ability. He acted as if he was great before he actually proved it. The moment he stepped up, he was put down, and put down brutally by Maidana.

Amir Khan is another prime example of an over hyped fighter who is mediocre at best. He has quick hands and a pretty good punch, but those two assets are over shadowed by his multiple deficiencies which have led him to a couple knockout losses. He was out on his feet for 2 to 3 rounds against Maidana and somehow managed to win that fight. He is now calling for a fight with Mayweather and it baffles me. He has done nothing to deserve a crack at the greatest fighter in recent memory, why not Danny Garcia?

Before we go jumping on peoples bandwagon, look at who they have fought and decide for yourself if they are what we are told they are. Dont get sucked into these hype jobs by some people looking to make money with an exciting fighter by putting him in against a low risk opponent. Its all about money and we should demand more out of champions or those talking like they are the next big thing. Greatness is earned, it is strived for through blood, sweat, and tears, not by pretending you are great before you have proven yourself to be great. 

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Thurman vs Soto Karass post fight analysis


While I was salivating for the Maidana vs Broner fight, this fight was nearly as mouth watering. I have been watching Thurman because there was something about him, I have this gut feeling about him and I think I might be right after his fight with Soto Karass. Thurman showed that he is much more than just a banger, he showed that he has real talent as he employed a beautiful strategy against the tough and cagey veteran Soto Karass, who was coming of a spectacular knockout win over Andre Berto. I was not sure if Thurman could keep up this game plan all night but he was boxing brilliantly, showing us just how many tools the man has in his arsenal. He was patient and stuck to his game plan, he showed a great deal of poise in the face of the tremendous amount of pressure Soto Karass was putting on him. He showed a good chin and great stamina as he walked his man down and eventually got a pretty brutal knockout. I think Keith Thurman might just be the real deal, Soto Karass is not easy to look good against, even if you beat him. If you are not it, he will certainly find that out for us and Thurman looked good.

On a side note I would like to say that the ref Jon Schorle did a great job, Soto Karass was going down and the ref was able to break his fall and stop him from potentially slamming his head on the canvas, and Soto Karass was clearly out. Kudos to you Mr. Schorle.





















Maidana vs Broner post fight analysis




Last night we seen one of the more anticipated fights of the year, Broner vs Maidana in a 147lb clash. The image that was created for or by Broner was that he is the heir apparent to Floyd Mayweather. The problem with "the problem" is that he has been feasting on b level fighters and claiming to be great. To be great you must beat great and while Broner showed heart, he failed against the hard punching Maidana. Being from Ohio I originally rooted for Broner, but his antics have really turned me off as they were a bit much for me. One video he posted was of him on the toilet saying that he "shits money" and sure enough he distastefully shows his crap and several bills in the toilet. For me this was distasteful for so many reasons, poop is disgusting and the fact that so many are struggling and he is throwing money in the toilet disgusts me more than his turd. So yea, going into the fight I was biased, which is one reason why I did not post any predictions on it.

Maidana is about as tough as they come and I knew that Broner was in for a long night. The last year or so I began thinking that Broner actually believed his own hype, doing more talking than fighting. Even in sparring sessions it seemed as if he was getting handled by guys that should not be handling him, yet still talking a big game. However, Maidana has come up short on a few occasions and at times has looked a bit lackluster. This fight, he was different. He came out on a mission to show Broner that while others may believe the Broner hype, he did not. He roughed Broner up pretty good the first round, and in typical distasteful fashion Broner and Maidana got tangled up and Broner positioned himself behind Maidana and "humped" him, a move that he paid for dearly in the next round. Maidana again came out looking to destroy, and he floored Broner hard. The replay showed Broners eyes in the back of his head, I think if the ropes did not break his fall that he may have slammed his head into the canvas and not gotten up. All credit to Broner for making it out of the round being seriously hurt.

The beating continued and anytime Broner attempted to take control, Maidana came right back with several shots. That is one thing that really makes Maidana so dangerous, he is a hard puncher with either hand and he throws several shots, not just one. Broner tried and I give him credit for that, but he was once again floored in the 8th round, this time not as hurt as the first. As Maidana came on Broner tied up and Maidana blatantly headbutted him. The comical part was when Broner put on an acting display that clearly convinced nobody as he was clearly looking to win by DQ or at least have an excuse as to why he lost. But, the beating continued throughout and I had it a landslide victory for Maidana, and thankfully so did the judges.

Now that Broner has been humbled maybe he will learn that you earn your way then you can talk. Floyd Mayweather did just that, he earned the right to be a loud mouth because he backs it up every single time, oh, and against world class opposition. Broner thought he was great before he beat a great and it just doesn't work like that. Silly antics like having someone brush your hair after a fight does not make you great, beating b level fighters does not make you great, beating great fighters makes you great. Humility does wonders, and maybe it will for Broner too.
















Saturday, December 7, 2013

Kirkland vs Tapia, Post fight analysis




Well, I said it before and I will say it again, I will admit when I am wrong, and I was wrong on this one. Last night we saw the return of James Kirkland on the undercard of Rigondeux vs Agbeko, and boy did he return in style. The first round it was clear that Kirkland had some ring rust, but it was not clear if it was just some ring rust or that Kirkland was a shot fighter. He looked a bit uncomfortable and Tapia did not seem deterred by anything Kirkland had to offer. Despite having some doubts about my call on this fight, they seemed to subside in that first round, Kirkland just did not look like Kirkland. He was taking a lot of punches and seemed unsure of his distance and looked a bit awkward throwing his punches. However it became evident that Kirkland was determined to overcome this ring rust and in the second and third he seemed to really begin to shake it off and find his old form again. I was not sure if Tapia was hurt or if he was intent on letting Kirkland punch himself out, he would let Kirkland whale on him but he would strike out here and there. So I thought maybe Tapia was attempting a rope-a-dope strategy, but again as the fight wore on it became clear that Kirkland was not shot and that he was really coming on. He was beating Tapia's body so bad that there were some points that he was on the inside and visibly leaning his body awkwardly away from Kirkland, thats when I knew he was done. The first three rounds it looked like Hagler v. Hearns, no joke, they both nailed each other with good shots and Kirkland threw an unbelievable amount of punches, it seemed like there was no way he could sustain this, but he did. In fact, he looked as if he was getting stronger as the fight wore on.

So Kirkland proved me wrong. I have to give him credit, he seemed to have everything working against him. One thing that did make me doubt my call was that I had learned that a few months back he reconciled with Ann Wolfe. If anyone can bring Kirkland back after such a long layoff, its Ann Wolfe. It seems he has shaken the rust and has gotten back his old form. He also took on a young and hungry 23 year old unbeaten up and comer in Glen Tapia, things have gotten much more interesting in the middleweight division.

Yes, I admit it, I was wrong about Danny Garcia


Before Danny Garcia fought Lucas Matthysse, I told my friend Fady that Garcia was going to lose to the man dubbed "the machine." I genuinely liked, and still like, Danny Garcia but I just did not see him as much of a threat. Yea, he beat Amir Khan and brutally knocked out aged veteran Erik Morales, but Matthysse was quickly proving that his nickname was more than just a nickname. Going into the Matthysse fight Garcia was coming off a hard fought win over Zab Judah. I saw that fight and thought that if he struggled against Judah then he was overrated and would get beaten up by Matthysse. But, I admit to my mistakes, I was dead wrong about that. Garcia made Matthysse live up to his nick name machine, making him look one dimensional and robotic. It was not even close as Garcia cruised to an easy 12 decision and Matthysse looked more like a mediocre fighter than the destroyer we previously thought him to be. Perhaps Matthysse is as good as we thought and Garcia is just much better than we thought. At any rate, Danny Garcia has proven that he belongs amongst the higher echelon fighters, taking challenges that he is not supposed to win, and proving everyone wrong.

I was wrong about Danny Garcia, and I am happy about that actually. Garcia is a class act, a very quiet and modest hard working talent. He is well spoken and a guy that everyone can root for. His press conferences are a thing to behold at times, but not because of anything he does, but its his fathers mouth. What makes that so cool? That Garcia manages to get in the ring and back it up. I was wrong and I am happy that I was wrong, I like Garcia and I think he is going to go far in this sport. This is just the beginning in my opinion.









Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Thoughts on Golovkin


WBA middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin is being touted as the next big thing in boxing. He is building a reputation as a fearsome puncher with good boxing skills and a great amateur pedigree. Unlike many in the boxing world, I am not yet sold on Golovkin. Is he fun to watch? Yes, I enjoy watching him but at the same time I must live in reality and therefore what he has done thus far is pretty unremarkable, to me at least. He won the WBA crown in 2010 against a guy named Nilson Tapia, then defended that against Kassim Ouma, and did not look as fearsome as many described. So for three years he has been WBA champ and has fought relatively unknown fighters, aside from Ouma, and 154lb fighters like Nobuhiro Ishida. More recently he beat up and stopped Curtis Stevens, who is again more of a 154lb fighter who himself has done relatively little but is known as a puncher. Sure, I enjoyed seeing Stevens look of surprise when he got knocked down against Golovkin, but in perspective Stevens is no Marvin Hagler.

Matthew Macklin is probably the only legitimate 160lb fighter on Golovkins record, sure, it was a devastating punch to the ribs. Macklin is most definetly a solid guy who challenged Sergio Martinez for the middleweight championship and lost in a brave effort. So we can give him that, he stopped Macklin on a body shot when Martinez struggled and even got knocked down by Macklin. But why do Golovkins promoters keep putting him in against guys that seemingly have no hope? No he is scheduled to fight Osumanu Adama, yea, a tough guy from Ghana that has only one legitimate guy on his ledger, Daniel Geale. Why not Sergio Martinez? Why not Chavez Jr.? Why this guy?

Fact is, Golovkin is fun to watch, nobody seems to disagree on that, but is he something special? Well, that remains to be seen for me.













King Khan or King Con?


If there is one thing I dislike in boxing, it is a man making a living off of his name, hype, or some other nonsense other than his, or her, abilities. We are all anxiously awaiting to hear who Floyd Mayweathers next opponent will be, and of course some are making a case for themselves. But none as undeserving as Amir Khan. Why on earth does he deserve a shot at the greatest p4p fighter? He was stopped by Breidis Prescott, who has gone on to do relatively nothing, but, ok maybe that first round knock out loss was just a fluke. Ya know, this is boxing, things like that can happen, but then he lost to Danny Garcia when he got clipped in the middle of an exchange. He also lost a controversial decision to Lamont Peterson in a wildly entertaining bout that was very close. I mean honestly, am I missing something here? Who does Khan think he is? He has consistently shown an inability to take a punch and to absorb instruction from high level trainers, each time he gets stopped, he gets a new trainer but does not seem to change any of his amateur habits.

Is it possible that Khan has enough positive attributes to offset his deficiencies against Floyd? Sure, anything is possible, but probable? No, hardly. Floyd is a defensive master and while he could likely stop Khan early, he is a cautious fighter, a smart fighter. He would cautiously box Khan until he slowed enough for Floyd to knock him out. Sure Khan is fast and he can hit a bit, but this is Floyd Mayweather, not Breidis Prescott or Lamont Peterson, or even Danny Garcia, all due respect to him as he is quickly proving to be something special. Khan literally has speed and power, that is pretty much it. He has not learned how to calm down and stop jumping all over the place, or even how to properly pace himself. I am sure he has been told but it clearly has not worked. His defensive liabilities are too numerous to even count and against a guy like Floyd that will spell a beating for Khan. If you watch his fight with Garcia, it did not take long for Garcia to figure out Khans weaknesses, and almost immediately began trying to time him. Because of Khans speed it took Garcia a few round before he timed his punch perfectly. It wont take Floyd that long even, this isn't his first rodeo, his experience, superior speed, and nearly everything else will be too much for Khan to overcome.

I am just dumbfounded at the level of delusion that Khan is experiencing right now. To even think that he can beat Floyd is laughable. The man is incapable of changing his style, relying on speed and power to bail him out, and against high level guys, thats just not going to cut it, especially when you have a glass chin. When Lennox Lewis got knocked out by McCall, he did not continue to fight in the same manner he always had, he hired Steward and began learning how to box and properly protect his chin. Khan has seemingly done the opposite, hired good trainers, then ignored their advice. Even when he beat Maidana, he was out on his feet for nearly two rounds and was entirely out of gas. So when he does beat a decent fighter, he still doesn't look all that good.

Should Floyd fight Khan? He should fight whoever they put in front of him, and it would be an easy payday that is for sure. However, I think Floyd should fight a deserving fighter like Danny Garcia, he has proven himself over and over. As for Khan? I do not think he is the worst fighter I have ever seen but I do think he is either delusional in thinking that he is even worthy to be mentioned in the same sentence as fighters like Floyd, or he is just conning us all. I tend to think the latter.




















Saturday, November 30, 2013

The Return of James Kirkland


On Dec 7th we will see the return of the man who calls himself the Mandingo Warrior, James Kirkland. Kirkland has been inactive for about two years due to legal issues involving his contract and promoter, with that taken care of he is set for his return. With his new promoter, 50 cent, comes a new trainer, Bob Santos who trains Robert Guerrero. It is tough to know what kind of shape Kirkland is in both mentally and physically, after his last bout against awkward tough guy Carlos Molina, Kirkland claimed that his corner gave him some mysterious black pills that disabled him during the fight. Even though his post fight drug test came back negative, Kirkland maintained this conspiratorial attitude and consequently fired his team. The last time Kirkland had a new trainer he looked less than mediocre against less than mediocre opposition, having difficulty making weight and even beating lesser opponents. He then went on to get totally demolished in one round by the light punching Nobuhiro Ishida. After this embarrassing loss, Kirkland made up with his former trainer Ann Wolfe and the two came back against hard punching mexican warrior Alfredo Angulo. Kirkland looked in top form, despite a first round knockdown, and dismantled the hard nosed Angulo in 6, knocking him down for the first time in his life. So, with a new trainer I have to assume Kirkland will not be the same man he was with Ann Wolfe, history shows that he is less of a fighter without her in his corner. He has about 2 years of ring rust and his mental stability is in question, so perhaps the layoff did good for him.

Kirkland will be facing Glen Tapia, an undefeated, and yet to be tested, up and comer. I doubt very much that Tapia will be intimidated by Kirkland as everything seems to be working against him coming into this bout. New trainer, tons of ring rust, and questionable mental stability may all play a part in Tapia pulling off the upset as Kirkland will still likely be the favorite here.

In my personal opinion Kirkland without Ann Wolfe is nothing special and we could have seen signs of his downfall in the Molina fight. However it is difficult to tell because Molina gives everyone problems and makes everyone look bad, and Kirkland only won that fight because Molina was DQ'd when his corner entered the ring before the bell rang.

I am not even going to go through what should happen, what could happen, and what I think will happen, I am just going to call it. I think Tapia is going to beat up Kirkland and it likely goes to the cards. They are either putting Kirkland in with this guy because he is easy pickings or because the only thing Kirkland has anymore is his reputation which will boost the relatively unknown Tapia onto the boxing radar. Being that Kirkland's behavior has been quite erratic I am assuming nobody really wants to work with him, so they are tossing him in against Tapia as a make or break fight. If Tapia loses then its no big deal for Top Rank, but if he wins, then hey, Arum has a new guy on the block.

Kirkland has been as erratic in the ring as he has been outside it lately, sometimes he is a seemingly indestructible force that cannot be hurt, or even bruised, like against Joel Julio and Alfredo Angulo. Other times he is plodding forward unable to land punches, like against Molina, or getting obliterated by feather fisted Ishida. Kirkland is much too erratic for me to think he can come back from such a long layoff, with a questionable state of mind and new trainer, and just pick up where he left off. Especially looking so bad against Carlos Molina in his last outing.

Kirkland is not a huge puncher, he hits hard, but relies more on accumulative punishment than anything else. Assuming Tapia has a decent chin, he is probably going to pick Kirkland apart. He is a savvy boxer who doesn't mind mixing it up a bit. On top of being a pretty good boxer, he is hungry and probably not easy to discourage. I think he is likely going to put quite a damper on Kirkland's long awaited come back and its doubtful we will ever see the destructive force that boxing enthusiasts fell in love with again.

Call: Tapia UD10 (Stoppage is highly likely if the chinny Kirkland shows up)


UPDATE: So, I have read that Kirkland is definetly back with trainer Ann Wolfe for this comeback fight. This is one of the major reasons I believed that Kirkland would lose this fight, that coupled with so many other factors, but that being the main one. Tonite we will find out of any of this has negatively affected him or not, but having Wolfe in his corner is huge. Now I am not so sure how to call this fight, but I am still going with my original call.














Adonis Stevenson vs Sergei Kovalev...if it happens


Stevenson and Kovalev have seemed to be on the path to a showdown for about a year or so, and boy is it starting to make our mouths water. Two big punchers yet two very different styles. Kovalev is a straight up bruiser who seems just as content in beating his man to a pulp for twelve rounds or stomping him early. Stevenson is quite the opposite, he is a boxer puncher that fights his opponents cautiously and is just as likely to outbox you for the full twelve as he is to ending it early. But, what will happen if they fight? It seems ever so likely after both of them displayed their craft, on the same card, last night.

What should happen?
This is tough, both are big punchers with two different styles and we have not idea if this matchup is going to make an ugly fight or explosive fight. We know both men can certainly punch so it is likely to come down to who can take who's punch and who can exploit the others defensive lapses, and Lord knows they both have them. I think that early on Stevenson, who has the speed advantage, will outwork and outbox Kovalev. Assuming Kovalev can take Stevenson's punch, he will keep coming forward looking to hit anything he can.  The biggest difference is that Stevenson often has his hands down in the middle of exchanges and I think this is where Kovalev will eventually get him. Kovalev's problem is that he often stands too tall, a typical european style. In his second fight with Darnell Boone, he was hit with numerous overhand rights in the first round, yet in the second he made the adjustment and stopped Boone in that very same round. Both guys have fought Boone twice, Stevenson was stopped by Boone the first time, while Kovalev took a close decision. Stevenson beat up Boone and then stopped him in the sixth the second go around while Kovalev destroyed Boone in his second try. I think that as the fight progresses Stevenson will start to slow down and Kovalev will start finding his range. I think he will start getting into more exchanges, and the more he does the higher the chance of Stevenson getting caught and stopped. Despite that I still think Stevenson will be the betting favorite.

Call: Kovalev KO 10

What could happen?
Well, just about anything could happen in this fight. Either fighter could end things with one single punch at nearly any moment. I do think that Kovalev is the harder puncher, but Stevenson the better boxer. It could be an early night in favor of either guy, or it could be a long boring fight with Stevenson outboxing Kovalev for 12. It could be a bad style matchup and just be plain ugly, and very boring. This fight seems so even that I cannot really think of a good scenario for any prediction.

Call: Even

What I think will happen?
While Stevenson is very skilled, he has some very bad habits. The one major flaw is that when he exchanges he leaves his hands down, not even Roy Jones Jr. did this! He does have spectacular reflexes and can get away with having his hands down on the outside, but does not seem to remember to bring them up on the inside. Kovalev is one of those guys that doesn't just punch, but exploits defensive deficiencies in his opponents. He does not just come to beat a guy until he falls by winging punches, and thats what makes him even more dangerous. Assuming Kovalev can take Stevenson's punch, he will eventually exploit this glaring flaw in Stevenson's virtually non-existent defense and eventually stop him. Kovalev is no defensive master either, but he keeps his hands up and is able to move his head...when he wants to. Neither man has slayed a dragon so it really is difficult to tell how much of either man is hype. I would say that Stevenson has the better ledger of the two but Stevenson has been stopped and has those flaws I mentioned above, which will likely lead to him being stopped late.

Call: Kovalev KO 10
















Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Stevenson vs Bellew, Fight Analysis

On November 30th Tony Bellew challenges light heavyweight champion Adonis Stevenson. It seems that some think this is going to be a good matchup and a good scrap, I on the other hand think this is going to be another quick and decisive win for the surging Stevenson. First lets look at a few of Bellews recent opponents. Bellew believes himself to be a puncher, but with a 54% knockout ratio against limited opposition, I have to seriously question his belief. In contrast, Stevenson has an impressive 82% knockout ratio, and against much higher opposition. Bellew fought a close match with Nathan Cleverly but lost that decision, after that his most notable opponent is the hard punching, but shopworn Edison Miranda. Those are literally the only two names of note on Bellews ledger, if we take a look at Stevensons list of opponents we see a much different story. I had personally written Stevenson off in his 2010 knockout loss to gatekeeper Darnell Boone, a very tough but limited opponent. I paid little attention to him until his 2013 rematch with him. I was pleasantly surprised at how improved Stevenson was in that 3 years time. He dominated Boone from the outset and then punctuated that performance with a brutal sixth round knockout. To me, that said a lot about the character of Stevenson, not only in coming back after a knockout, but improving that much and then beating the hell out of the man who stopped him.

It didn't stop there, in a matchup against Chad Dawson, Stevenson showed just how devastating his punching power really was in destroying Dawson with one single punch in the first round. Granted, Dawson had just lost to a great, but feather fisted, Andre Ward by stoppage. After that Stevenson was matched up against tough, rugged, and powerful Tavoris Cloud who was looking to bounce back after a decision loss to the ageless wonder Bernard Hopkins. Not only did Stevenson look far better than Hopkins did, putting on a masterful display of boxing prowess, he actually beat Cloud so bad that Cloud ended up quitting on his stool. Adonis has some good names on his ledger but still has something to prove and perhaps he can against the hungry Tony Bellew. Tony does not have the experience that Stevenson does, but has shown his ability to compete with the likes of Cleverly and that he can take a good punch against Miranda. Tony is a hungry opponent who is in good shape, is tough, and in his prime.

What should happen?
Tony should give a good account of himself as long as his chin holds up. If he can take Stevensons punch then he will give a good go, but that will likely only prolong the beating that he will inevitably take. Stevenson is soaring with his last few fights and is not going to be easy to discourage. Not only can Stevenson punch, he has quick hands and can box very well. He will likely come out cautious to see what Bellew offers, but it wont be very long until the beat down will commence. Stevenson is likely to keep the fight at range and choose his shots carefully. Simply because I have not seen Bellew take a shot from this type of puncher, it will likely end within 6 rounds.

Stevenson KO inside 6


What could happen?
Maybe Bellew is much better than we think, he is tough and hungry after all. He has everything to gain from winning this fight and to be honest, not much to lose. If he is able to crowd Stevenson and back him up, make it an ugly fight, oh, and take his punch, he could very well beat Stevenson in an ugly type street fight. In this instance I could see Bellew winning a close but very ugly decision.

Bellew with close decision



What I think will happen?
I think that Stevenson will come out cautious but will be looking to test the chin of Bellew. I think this will lead to an early and brutal knockout.

Stevenson early KO







Monday, November 25, 2013

Tor Hamer does it again

Well, Tor Hamer quit again. The past saturday on the undercard of Pacquiao vs Rios, Tor Hamer squared off against Andy Ruiz Jr. in what looked to be a great matchup on paper. In the beginning it thats exactly what it looked like it was going to be, one damn good heavyweight scrap. Hamer came out smoking, pounding on the soft body of Ruiz and for the first two rounds both guys put on a pretty good show. The third round, however, was all Ruiz as he beat Hamer down and subsequently caused him to retire after that round. It seems that anytime things are not going Hamers way, he quits. Look, I get it, I have been in there and I know it is tough but this is boxing. Hamer needs to find a new line of work if he is going to fold everytime things don't go his way, he looks great until his opponents fight back, then he inexplicably quits.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Pacquiao vs Rios, in perspective

November 23rd Manny Pacquiao returned to the ring against tough contender Brandon Rios. After two consecutive losses and coming off a KO loss Manny returned to the win column with a dominating performance. To describe it in one word, beating. That is exactly what Brandon Rios got saturday night, a 12 round beat down, to his credit, he remained standing. The boxing public was wondering if Manny was the same fighter after such a devastating loss, and I think he answered that question last night. Manny looked like Manny, but with a slight twist. He seemed much more content to fight more cautiously as opposed the furious pace he maintained earlier in his career, often rushing in guns blazing. I also noticed that he rarely, if ever, feinted before launching his vaunted straight left, a move that got him knocked out in his last outing against Marquez. Pacquiao's speed was clearly intact, as was his brilliant footwork and his great reflexes. All in all, I do not think he is shot or even passed his prime, just fighting a hell of a lot smarter.

As for Rios? Well, I did not give him much of a chance as he is made to order for Manny, which is probably another reason Manny looked stellar last night. The bad thing is that Rios took a beating, and a lot of punches to the head. At one point it was clear that Rios was much slower and really did not have any hope of winning the fight, I was sure that Robert Garcia would save his fighter from further punishment, but instead he sent him out again and again. For me it was sad because taking that amount of punishment will inevitably have an effect on anyone, and its not worth it. Especially when you have to land a knock out punch against a guy that you couldnt catch before you were beaten up. Shame on Robert Garcia for allowing Rios to take so much unnecessary punishment.

On a side note, Robert Garcia got under my skin in the whole gym argument fiasco. Freddie Roach politely asked Robert Garcia to leave since it was time for Pacquiao to work out, as Garcia and company were running late. Garcia immediately became defensive and disrespectful which inevitably led to a confrontation. The classless Ariza actually incited this by kicking Roach and then accusing Roach of racial slurs, which I did not hear. Incidentally Garcia who was right next to roach did not hear it either. Ariza then began mocking Roach's parkinsons disease. I respect what Garcia has done with some of his fighters, but his camp is completely classless and it showed on fight night when he allowed his fighter to take way too many hard punches to the body and head, but most of the punches landed on the head of Rios and landed flush and hard. Shame on Garcia.

Froch vs Groves, in perspective

On November 23rd Froch and Groves put on quite a spectacular war which saw both men rocked on many occasions but sadly it ended in controversy. Groves came out aggressive, backing Froch up for most of the round. Both fighters seemed to fight on even terms until Groves nailed Froch mid exchange, right on the chin, and sent him down hard and in serious trouble. Groves could not finish a very unsteady Froch in the first and certainly gained his respect. The fight was quite literally a war, every round after that each fighter took turns landing their best, so much so that I myself was feeling it! In the 9th round Froch seemed to really turn it on, hurting Groves seriously. Before Groves ever even went down or Froch could finish him off, the referee inexplicably stepped in and waved it off, despite the protests from Groves. I will say this, I would much rather a fight be stopped too early than too late. In hindsight, yes maybe it was a bit too premature, but its better than too late. These guys will likely lace up and duke it out again, had it been a late stoppage perhaps Groves never would have laced up again.

Groves impressed me last night. I never seen him fight and did not even bother posting an analysis of the fight as I assumed Froch would walk through him. To my surprise he nearly got beat in the first stanza. I do not think it was that Froch was an old 36 but that Groves is on his level. Froch did what Froch does, its just that Groves was clearly underestimated and well prepared for the task at hand. The rematch will tell if this was a fluke or if Groves is the real deal.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Pacquiao vs Rios Fight Analysis


Nov. 23rd Manny Pacquiao returns to the ring after his devastating one punch knockout loss to Juan Manuel Marquez to face rugged banger Brandon Rios. This fight has knockout written all over it and because Manny is coming off a knockout loss and we dont know if he has recovered mentally or not. Rios too is coming off a loss to Mike Alvarado, a decision loss in a rematch.

Brandon Rios seems made to order for Pacquiao who has superior everything to Rios. The big question is how did the knockout loss effect Manny? If Manny is on then its probably going to be short and brutal.

What should happen?
Manny should quickly shake off the rust from a nearly 1 year layoff to stop Rios either early or mid fight. If Manny is Manny I do not see any way in which Brandon can win. He does not possess the skill to land his big bombs, and against Manny he is gonna need it. He also lacks a good defense and head movement, which will prove to be lethal if Manny is on his game. But what he lacks in defense and head movement he makes up for with a granite chin.

Result: Pacquiao by KO

What could happen?
Well, maybe Manny has not recovered from the loss to Marquez. In that case Rios is the type of fighter that could really make Manny doubt himself and start fighting more defensively and unwilling to engage. The one thing Rios possesses is an iron will and if Manny is not what he once was, Rios is going to find out. In this instance Rios could end things early but it is more likely that he would still have to take some heavy artillery and wear down a broken and timid Pacquiao.

Result: Rios by late KO

What I think will happen.
Manny has continually thrived under chaos and pressure, he has performed well despite distractions in his personal life. This tells me a lot about his personality, he does not seem to care about things, even a knockout loss. That just seems like his personality and despite having looked flat against Bradley, I do not think Pacquiao is a shot fighter. Sure he has been in some wars, however, in many instances Pac was moving up in weight as opposed to draining himself to make a weight, which takes a serious toll on a fighter, especially if that fighter gets into a war having struggled to make weight.

Rios on the other hand has struggled to make weight several times and afterwards gone to war. In my opinion this is what quickly wears fighters down and shortens their careers. Fighters like Rios do not last long, especially when they kill themselves to make weight. This may sound crazy but I think Rios is more spent then Pacquiao and I think Pacquiaos team thinks that too, otherwise they wouldnt have chose him.

I think Pacquiao will be Pacquiao, even if he might be a bit past his prime, it wont matter against a guy like Rios who is considerably less skilled. I see Rios giving a good account of himself with his granite chin. Pac will likely fight a bit like Acosta did against Rios, utilizing superior movement, footwork, and handspeed. Since Rios is not difficult to hit it will only be a matter of time before Rios' granite chin cracks. He showed against Acosta that he can be outboxed fairly easily. If you couple that with the power of Pac, it seems fairly clear. The fight will last as long as Brandons chin can hold up. That could be 1 round and it could be 12 I dont know, I have never seen Rios against a puncher like Pacquiao.

Result: Pacquiao by KO


Important Note: As I was pouring through fight film I came upon an early fight of Brandon Rios against a Joel Ortega. It was interesting because Ortega floored Rios twice and nearly stopped him in the very first round and Ortega is a southpaw. Not sure how relevant this is since it was early in Brandons career but I thought I would note it.

















Saturday, May 18, 2013

Matthysse


On the 18th of May 2013, boxing fans were given a glimpse of their next potential superstar, Lucas Matthysse. We all know Matthysse can punch hard and can certainly take a good shot, he has never been down as a professional, but, Lamont Peterson is a very tough individual. My thinking was that he would not engage and stick to pure boxing. I knew he could take a good punch because he took the best Amir Khan had to offer and did not budge. Given Peterson's ability to box and his toughness, I thought this would last a lot longer than it did. Matthysse demonstrated exactly why he is one of the most terrifying men outside of the heavyweight division in demolishing the usually durable Lamont Peterson in just a few rounds.

The Matthysse I was used to seeing seemed to have little sense of urgency and seemed to be content taking his time, which ended up costing him two fights, both of which are disputed. Now, he is much more active, coming out from the opening bell looking to completely decapitate his opponent, and he nearly did that to Peterson. I think, as does Matthysse, that those losses helped motivate him to become something like a rabid dog, unrelenting in his attack with little that can deter him. Peterson landed some good shots, but nothing left a mark and nothing seemed to really faze Matthysse, who now seems poised to ascend and take the throne of Pacquiao as the most deadly little man in the game. The power that Matthysse possesses seems to be something as pure as Earnie Shavers had, the difference is, not only size, but that Matthysse has some very legitimate skills to back them up. His destruction of Humberto Soto, which surprised me, is evidence that Matthysse is for real.

Where does he go from here? Most likely he will be matched up against Danny Garcia, the man who stopped Amir Khan and the aging warrior Erik Morales, but looked vulnerable against the spent Zab Judah. If these two do get matched up, and there seems to be no reason they wont be, it will be a very difficult for Garcia who is not typically light on his feet. He proved he has a great chin against Khan and Judah, but they are not Matthysse. If Matthysse lands a fraction of what either fighter did in their fights against Garcia, it will be another quick and relatively easy night for Matthysse. Garcia may have a great chin, but that is entirely nullified when it meets the fists of Matthysse.

All Matthysse needs to do is land a punch, and not even a solid one at that, a grazing, glancing blow, perhaps even the wind from his punch flying by your head will be enough to convince your brain to shut down and save you the beating.

That being said, Matthysse has shown, in the past, that he can be outboxed. He claims to have corrected this by not thinking at any time that he has the fight won, but to always be looking for the knockout, to take it out of the hands of the judges. I am inclined to believe him as he has pulled of a string of very credible, and disturbing, knockouts. So, sometimes bad decisions do good things because now Matthysse is on the war path, I am just glad I am not in the way, but standing by watching as he plows through people.

Eric Shaeffer was wrong, this is not the new Manny Pacquiao, this is Lucas Matthysse, a much different fighter but perhaps just as destructive, if not more so.


















Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Stiverne vs Arreola, Stiverne In Perspective

Last saturday we were treated to a pretty decent heavyweight fight. Anyone who paid attention to the pre fight buildup had to be excited for this one, but, like many others I felt this was going to be a one sided beat down or early knockout by Chris Arreola. Stiverne is a very heavy handed fighter but previously I was not very impressed with him. I know he came to the game late but he looked like a sub par fighter against a 40 year old Ray Austin, even though he stopped Austin. So I was not expecting much, however, it was a pretty good scrap. Arreola came out aggressive and Stiverne looked calm and collected in trying to set up counters. I was a bit impressed with how Stiverne opened, with all that pressure he stayed cool. Shockingly he caught Arreola at the end of the 3rd round, it floored Arreola hard and broke his nose.

To his credit, Arreola never stopped trying and even had moments in the latter part of the fight. While Stiverne has certainly improved his game, namely counter punching and being more patient, I am still not sold. I think he will beat some good fighters and it will be fun to watch him do it, but, he showed many weaknesses. I thought his major weakness was his chin, since he was stopped by unheralded Demtrice King. However, I have watched that fight and I disagree with the stoppage, besides, he showed quite a good chin against Arreola. That being said, he has some pretty terrible stamina, but I have always thought that does not matter as long as you can beat up the other guy enough to where he is more tired than you, but still, there really is no excuse. Stiverne was not taking a lot of punishment and not throwing a tremendous amount of punches and he was clearly tired as the fight wore on. He often times drops his hands after punching and backs straight up with his chin exposed.

I do not think he could beat Klitschko, however, he clearly has some very heavy hands which often time enable him to get away with certain things. He does not need to throw many punches per round, because he punches so hard, and he does not really even need to be that active because of his power. But, he needs to work mostly on his conditioning and he has improved tremendously so hopefully that will too. Despite Stivernes somewhat poor conditioning, the man can fight tired. His punches never seemed to get sloppy or even lose their pop, which is impressive. What was even more impressive is that Stiverne could have cruised in rounds 11 and 12, instead, he tried to finish Arreola, and nearly did in the 12th with some vicious body punches.

Stiverne's Pros and Cons


Pros
Very heavy handed puncher
Quick hands
Good chin
Durable, thus far
Can fight when tired
Has a warrior mentality
Calm and collected under pressure

Cons
Suspect stamina
Some defensive flaws
Lack of experience











Wednesday, April 24, 2013

The Return of El Dinamita

On September 14th Juan Manuel Marquez returns to the ring to attempt lift the title of Timothy Bradley. Marquez is coming into this fight riding the high of his vicious but classic KO of Manny Pacquiao and unless something drastically changed in his life, he will likely be in prime condition both mentally and physically. Bradley, on the other hand, has not looked good in his last two fights, a gift decision against Manny Pacquiao and an all out war against Provodnikov. In both of those fights Bradley showed his toughness in taking a tremendous amount of punishment. What he also showed is that he is a very limited fighter, he has alright speed, a good chin, big heart, and that is pretty much it. He lacks punching power, having only 12 KO's in 30 fights, giving him about a 38% KO ratio. This will be his toughest test to date, he is not fighting a Pacquiao who has just converted and seems disinterested in fighting. He will not be fighting the limited but powerful Provodnikov, but a supremely conditioned athlete who has both speed and power, and on top of that Marquez has the experience. The deck is stacked against Bradley.

What should happen
Bradley will give a good account of himself but his chin and heart will not be enough to overcome the all-time great. Marquez will likely take his time and break his opponent down and stop him late but it would not surprise anyone if it went to the cards.

What could happen
Well, I doubt that Bradley will stop Marquez, even if Marquez comes in grossly out of shape. Bradley could do what he did against Pacquiao and get battered around the ring and still get a decision.

What I think will happen
I would not be surprised if Marquez catches Bradley early and stops him, I also would not be surprised if Marquez hurts him but he survives and turns it into a war, that he will ultimately lose. Bradley is limited, and the only reason he did not get stopped against his last two opponents is because he has a great chin and a big heart. Neither will be enough to overcome Marquez. Bradley is going to get knocked out.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Alvarez vs Trout, Prediction

Tomorrow, April 20th, Saul Alvarez takes on Austin Trout in a super welterweight unification bout. Both fighters seem to be in or near their prime, undefeated and ready for big things. I think both are about equal in nearly every physical attribute and skill. However, I believe the main difference is that Trout has gotten here the hard way and is not about to let that be taken from him and Canelo has had practically everything handed to him on a silver platter. He is a good fighter though, and that being said, he has not impressed me at all in recent fights. Knocking out an old Baldomir was an accomplishment but still, up to that point it was a boring fight. Regardless, this should be a fairly fan friendly fight.

What should happen
Canelo should do his thing against Trout, come in and box for 12 rounds and win a somewhat fan friendly scrap, possibly a razor thing decision prompting all the boxing world to cry foul, as usual.

What could happen
Trout could come out and completely dominate Alvarez, but then again, Alvarez could do the same. I think what would be shocking is if this fight ends in a KO either way, but it could happen.

What I think will happen
I think Trout will completely dominate Alvarez. I have never been impressed with Alvarez beating up second tier competition, and struggling in doing so. Trout has a lot to prove and has worked hard to get here, I think that alone will propel him to his biggest win to date.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Why Mayweather's deal with Shotime is a raw deal


Recently boxing superstar Floyd Mayweather announced that he was leaving long time parter HBO for their rival, Shotime. It is alleged to be the most lucrative individual contract in all of sports. It is a 6 fight deal over a 30 month period. I have heard rumors that the contract is allegedly worth well over 200 million, but this is just conjecture as nobody really knows the exact figures. But, is this contract really all it is hyped up to be? Just because there is a lot of money involved does not mean that the contract is good for Floyd. Part of the terms of this contract is that the six fight deal happens within a 30 month period. So Floyd must have these 6 fights in a 2.5 year period, and keep in mind, these are pay per view fights, which involves promotion of the fights. For someone who has been fighting one fight a year, this is a big change. A lot of fights in a short time, which will undoubtedly take its toll.

Let us assume that the Guerrero fight is tougher than expected, but wins as he is expected to, he will have a short time with which to rest, but then his next fight will be announced and the promotion of it will begin. He will then have to begin training camp, which means after his fights now, he cannot go out partying for nearly a whole year until his next fight. I think this puts an unbelievable amount of stress on Floyd, and if he does not fulfill the terms of the contract by fighting 6 times within that 2 and a half year period, then he does not make nearly as much money. So it is a great deal for Shotime, especially if he does not fulfill the terms.

It seems as if Floyd is banking on taking little to no punishment during these fights, which, if you have seen his recent fights, is an impossibility. We have to remember that Floyd had an extensive amateur career that saw him fight around 200 fights. He is also 36 years old and has clearly showed signs of slowing down. He is far more flat footed and easier to hit than before, making him far more exciting of course. However, even not knowing the figures, I think Floyd is getting a raw deal. He made 45 million in his lone fight in 2012 against Miguel Cotto, if he kept up that for six fights, he would have made nearly 300 million dollars, guaranteed. This new deal, however, is based on him completing the 6 fights in the allotted time period of 2 and a half years, meaning if he does not, he will make much less than before, quite a gamble.

Floyd certainly believes in himself enough to sign this contract, and maybe Shotime will allow him to continue hand picking beatable opponents and avoiding any real competition. Keep in mind, its was a few years ago that Cotto was branded as a shot fighter being well past his prime, and yet he was competitive to the final bell against Floyd, another indication that Floyd, while still great, is not the man he used to be. In my opinion this deal will only serve to speed up the aging process and end Floyd's career far sooner than if he continued fighting one fight a year at 45 million a fight.












Saturday, April 13, 2013

Donaire vs Rigondeaux, Prediction

Tonight, Donaire faces the young cuban amateur standout and olympian Guillermo Rigondeaux. Rigo, is vastly experienced in terms of amateur fights but only has 11 fights as a pro, and oddly enough already holds a title. He has tremendous hand speed and good power, but, in my estimation thats really all I know. He has 11 fights so I can't really gauge him. Donaire on the other hand is a spectacular professional fighter with speed, power, and unbelievable craft. We know Donaire can compete on the elite level, we don't know about Rigo.

What should happen
It is supposed to be a good fight between two good fighters, even though one of them is a great amatuer and the other a great champion. But, if Rigo is as good as we are told, then it should be a good fight, but Donaire should prevail.

What could happen
Rigo could surprise us all and be far superior to the larger Donaire. Perhaps he could beat Donaire up, or outclass him over 12 rounds?

What I think will happen
While Rigo is a good fighter, highly skilled, Donaire is great and highly skilled with the professional experience to go with that. I think Rigo is well out of his league, no matter how skilled he is. He is going from decent fighters to elite and I don't think it will last very long, or, as long as Donaire allows it to go. I will be surprised if Donaire does not stop him.







Friday, March 29, 2013

Rios vs. Alvarado II Fight Prediction


This weekend fight fans will be treated to another fight of the year between Brandon Rios and Mike Alvarado. Their first fight was a barn burner and immediate candidate for fight of the year. Most of the fight was fought on equal footing, until Rios was finally able to hurt Alvarado and end matters in the 7th. This time around Rios is the favorite to win.

Rios, as pictured above on the left, looked a bit emaciated to me, I am not sure what weight he walks around at, but it looks like he lost a lot of weight while Alvarado looked far better. Also, Rios has been in some serious wars and something I think takes an even bigger toll is that he was often struggling to make weight before going into those fights. However, his last fight against Alvarado, none of that seemed to matter. He took a good punch, was clearly in great shape and showed he belonged in that division, which he had just moved up to. Alvarado looked as if he could have boxed a little more, taken less punishment, and perhaps won the fight. But, the warrior in him would not allow him to employ a game plan like that. While Rios won the first fight, I thought Alvarado showed that he possessed greater skill than Rios, even if he did not actually use all of them.

What should happen
What we are all expecting is a continuation of the first fight. Both guys coming out, going to war, and Rios eventually overcoming Alvarado. Its really that simple, fight until someone falls, and it should be Rios who prevails.

What could happen
Alvarado showed some good skills and boxing knowledge in the first fight, however, he did not always employ his greater skill. If he and his team learned anything from the first fight its that both guys can hurt each other, and Rios is one dimensional. It is one hell of a dimension, but he can be outboxed. If Alvarado boxes and moves, picks his spots, he can surprise a lot of people and being the bigger guy, he could wear Rios down and possibly stop him.

What I think will happen
I think Alvarado will certainly try to employ a different strategy but I am not sure how long this will last. How long can he box before the pressure of Rios forces him to fight? Can he do enough damage to wear Rios down? This is what makes the fight tough for me to call because if Alvarado is able to box effectively, I think he can beat Rios. My concern is Alvarado's mentality, how long can he do this before the warrior in him comes out and he decides to go toe to toe? If Alvarado can maintain a different strategy I think he will win, however, if he cannot or does not then Rios will repeat his victory over Alvarado.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Abraham vs Stieglitz, post fight



Last saturday Robert Stieglitz effectively ended the career of Arthur Abraham. From the first round Stieglitz dominated a befuddled Abraham who fought out of his patented high guard and unpredictable offense. After Abraham fought Edison Miranda the first time, I thought he would not have much left, even though he won that fight he took a tremendous beating, the kind that ends a career. However he fought on but to me never seemed to be the same fighter. What kept him in fights is his good defense and destructive power which could quickly turn a fight and keep fighters honest for sure. The last few years he has clearly diminished and Robert Stieglitz put an effective punctuation mark at the end of this fight. He tore into Abraham from the get go, and my thinking was that eventually Abraham would catch him and end the fight. However, he never seemed to have the ability to hurt Stieglitz, or even deter him in the slightest.

In the second round Abraham tried to get Stieglitz off of him by fighting back, which he was forced to do with Stieglitz pressure. It did not seem to matter, Stieglitz was a man on a mission and would not be denied. He even shocked me by seriously hurting Abraham at the end of the second stanza and he clearly had no intention in engaging Stieglitz at that point as he was only interested in holding.

It was more of the same in the third round, this time Abraham had a badly swollen eye. Having little to no chance in winning the fight, the referee correctly called an end to the bout. It is hard to see where Abraham goes from here, he has struggled the last few years and if he couldn't punch, he would have lost many more fights, in my opinion. Stieglitz, however, looked amazing and seems to have many options on the table after a performance like that.

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Bradley vs Provodnikov, the Aftermath

I just finished watching one of the best fights that I have seen in years. Last weekend we were treated to a highly technical and historical fight in Hopkins vs. Cloud, not one that everyone appreciated but historical none the less. This weekend I was not expecting much. Bradley is a very tough guy and a damn good fighter who was on the receiving end of some very unfair criticism in his win over Pacquiao. Bradley was very emotional in the buildup to this fight about the Pacquiao fight so I thought he was going into this fight emotionally unprepared. Provodnikov was a mystery to me. I had never seen him fight and only knew that he was a sparring partner for Pacquiao. I thought this would be a boring Bradley decision as Provodnikov was coming up in weight it seemed Bradley may be just too much and that this was more of a confidence builder for Bradley.

Boy was I wrong....and thankfully.

Provodnikov came out looking to kill, stalking like a lion his prey. Bradley seemed to concur that this was how things were going to get done, fighting it out like two gladiators in a roman colliseum. Unfortunately for Bradley it did not go so well the first two rounds. Provodnikov hammered Bradley around the ring with relative ease, and actually looked the bigger of the two. Bradley was hurt and did eventually go down, although the referee ruled that it wasn't a knockdown as Provodnikov did sort of push him to the canvas. The second round was so one sided, I would have scored it a 10-8 round for Provodnikov. However, to Bradley's credit, he remained on his feet, and not only that, he kept fighting as if nothing happened. Eventually he took control of the fight as Provodnikov looked like a tired plodding heavyweight looking for one hail mary shot to end things.

This is why in the 7th it seemed as such a shock that Provodnikov nearly ended it again with a sneaky, yet brutal, left hook. Once again, the tough as nails Bradley remained on his feet, seemingly out, yet fighting back furiously off the ropes. The fight was back and fourth from that point on, and before the 11th trainer Freddie Roach told Provodnikov that he had to hurt Bradley or he would stop the fight, yes, it was that brutal. Provodnikov came out and attempted to do just that, come at Bradley with everything he had left, this seemed to appease Roach and he allowed his fighter to enter into the 12th, even though he looked the worse for wear.

Bradley had built up a good lead on the scorecards and all he had to do was survive, and his trainers told him that. Provodnikov was relentless and finally caught up to the iron chinned and iron willed Timothy Bradley, hurting him badly, however this time he was able to put him on the canvas, but it was too little too late. Bradley had too big of a lead on the cards and won a close unanimous decision.

These are the types of fights that end fighters careers. Both fighters took tremendous punishment and Bradley stated after the fight that he knew that he had a concussion early on in the fight. While that is certainly ballsy and brave, it is also stupid and not good for ones mental health. Thankfully for Provodnikov Bradley is not a big puncher and despite Roy Jones insisting that a steady legged Provodnikov was "seriously hurt" he never really did seem hurt at any point. He seemed more fatigued than anything.

This fight should set the tone for what is to come in 2013, this was a classic war that you rarely get to see.

Saturday, March 9, 2013

Hopkins vs Cloud, Post Fight Analysis

I have seen some amazing things in my short time on this earth, one of the most amazing things I seen in boxing was Foreman vs. Moorer. I was excited because it was Foreman and my dad liked him. I thought this would be a time for us to bond and watch the old man give it another go. But as the fight wore on, my dad grudgingly went off to bed saying he did not want to see a boyhood idol take such a beating. Lone behold it was only 6 minutes or so that he bolted out of the bedroom upon hearing me scream "He did it, he did it!" What an awesome feeling. However, the fight tonight was not exactly a wake everyone up with screaming type fight, but it was something special for sure, something rarely seen.

I had predicted that Hopkins would soundly defeat the much younger Cloud, however, I was still hanging on the edge of my seat while watching the fight. I know Cloud can punch and Hopkins was playing a deadly game. But he played it wisely. Instead of hopping around the ring to keep Cloud off balance and unable to plant his feet, he calmly walked, conserving his energy. Cloud was completely unaware of this and failed to put more pressure on Hopkins. But Hopkins, the cagey veteran used everything he has ever learned, and did it with relative ease, so it seemed.

Hopkins would nail Cloud and then either tie up or, get this, use the shoulder roll and bobbing and weaving to get away. And this was reflected in the compubox as Cloud landed around 20% of his punches, which is dismal, and Hopkins 41%, which is amazing, especially considering that he is 17 years older than Cloud. Anytime Cloud started to put his foot on the pedal Hopkins would engage him and nail him with something that was hard enough to back him off. A couple times Cloud, clearly buzzed, backed away and Hopkins let him be because he knew that Cloud would think twice about rushing in so why try and go after a guy and risk getting stopped yourself? Classy veteran move. Hopkins literally beat up the younger man and in the 12th Clouds corner told him he needs to put Hopkins down and he came out initially trying and Hopkins threw a few uncharictaristically hard shots that landed solid on Cloud and ended any desire he may have had to come at Hopkins for the KO. A wonderfully brilliant and masterful performance by Hopkins who continues to give us more reasons to call him "The Greatest".

I am beginning to wonder if death himself is starting to worry about having to face Hopkins someday, I wonder.




Thursday, February 21, 2013

Mollo vs Szpilka, Instant Classic

A classic war between a hard nosed tough guy in Mollo and a prospect in Szpilka. Keep in mind that Mollo had not fought in two years and took the fight on relatively short notice. I think if he had proper time to prepare and been in better shape, he would have easily won this fight. To quote gensu3k1 from youtube: "Every boxing fan in the world owes Mike Mollo a drink."

Thursday, January 24, 2013

The Mayweather Blueprint

Floyd Mayweather Jr. is arguably one of the greatest fighters in recent memory. It used to be that Floyd rarely had a glove laid on him and like Roy Jones Jr in his prime seemed to rarely even lose a round. Floyd is able to make great fighters look like your average run of the mill sparring partners. As of late it seems as if he is slipping a bit. He has become less mobile, and in my opinion a lot more exciting as he gives fighters more chances. However, his defense is so good that he can afford to stand directly in front of his opponents and still make them miss, even if they land they slide off his patented philly defense. With all that being said, it still seems as if he is invincible. He is always in shape, despite his seemingly crazy lifestyle and outside of the ring antics. Is there a way to beat the great "money" Mayweather? I think there is and I plan on trying to demonstrate the weakness in this alltime great. Of course this is a lot easier said, or typed, then actually done. For this blueprint to be executed would take someone just as great as Mayweather to pull off.

There are a couple of ways which I think would work, both are equally difficult but in vastly different ways.

Blueprint #1 - The Punch With
Notice from the picture above that when Mayweather punches while coming forward that his chin is completely exposed. Floyd does not generally tuck in his chin when he is throwing these types of offensive punches. When he is in defensive mode looking to counter it is pretty well protected. I think this is the mistake fighters make is that they either try to overpower Mayweather and out will him, and when this inevitably fails, they stand on the outside and get picked apart. If you have the speed and the technique then you should stand on the outside and have Mayweather come to you and punch with him. So when Floyd throws a right hand, you throw your left at the same time and vice versa. Floyd is not a devastating puncher so if you have a good chin this will work, and it helps if you can punch a bit too. Floyd has been hurt from this very tactic, despite that he does seem to have a very good chin so I doubt one punch will do it unless he does not see it. This tactic would take a highly skilled fighter with precision timing and hand speed equal to or better than Floyd. It might work if you have quick enough hands and not blinding speed.

Here is another example of Mayweather coming forward punching. Notice that his left hand, his lead hand, is down while throwing the right hand. His chin is exposed and there to be hit, however, because of his unbelievable hand speed he has been able to get away with it. As noted previously, Floyd has been much more stationary in recent fights and his amazing footwork enabled him to throw these kind of shots and get the hell out of the way. Since he is more stationary this tactic would be much easier to pull off.

Here is yet another example of Floyd throwing the right hand with his left hand below his chin and his chin is completely exposed. To pull this off you would need unbelievable timing but punching with Floyd would be the best chance for someone with skill and power. This is most definetly a weakness that I am not at all surprised has not been corrected. His team seems to buy into this idea that Floyd is indestructible and this has blinded them to some of his faults, which are certainly minimal. However, this flaw is a rather big one and the right person could capitalize on.





Blueprint #2 - Pure Pressure
This one requires and unbelievable amount of stamina and punch resistance, pure pressure. In the past fighters have used pressure on Floyd but it often seemed that either the pressure was reckless, like Jesus Chavez, or that their conditioning did not hold up. I could imagine a fighter like James Kirkland employing this method with great success, he is in shape, hits hard, and is not easy to discourage. The key to this, other than supreme conditioning, is bodywork. One thing Floyd offers is his body. If the pressure is done wisely and the body is worked consistently, while utilizing good head movement and a solid chin, it could work. However, this would also take a special kind of fighter because many have tried this and all have failed. Again, this would take a fighter just as great as Mayweather to pull off as it seems unlikely to ever work. That being said, Floyd has clearly slowed down a bit and, as stated earlier, is far more stationary and willing to lay on the ropes and counter. If someone is in good enough shape and hits hard enough, they could possibly pull it off.

The other major obstacle is Floyd's defense. He has one of the best defenses in boxing by far. It is nearly impossible to get a clean shot in on his face while he is in his philly shell defense and this is why it is smart to focus on the body with the hard shots because you will no doubt land them, but you waste your energy trying to land a knockout blow on his face. So the idea is to throw to his head, but not to throw hard shots, save them for the body. Fling out a good jab or two, maybe even a hook or two, but go right back down to the body. I don't care who you are, body work pays off and if he is going to give it to you that easily, then take it, put your money in the bank. If it does not stop him it will at least slow him down in the later rounds.

The one thing that both blueprints need is a good solid jab. Oscar De La Hoya had some success with the jab when he fought Floyd, but mysteriously abandoned it midway through the fight. There are many of the young fighters out there who have abandoned the jab entirely, opting for the one punch knockout wining punches. A good hard jab should be key in any game plan, and in both of these it is a necessity, moreso in blueprint #2 than #1. #1 you are working off what Floyd gives you, looking to catch him when he punches.

I truly hope, for the sake of boxing, that someone special comes along who is not afraid of Floyd and does not buy into the hype, like so many Roy Jones Jr. fighters did. No fighter is invincible, as Marquez finally proved against Pacquiao. Study the tapes and practice the gameplan.



 

Friday, January 18, 2013

Garcia vs Salido Prediction


Tomorrow night we get to see just how good Mikey Garcia is. So far he has shown that he is a sound technician with some pop in his punch. Tomorrow we are certain to find out if he has the goods as Salido will certainly find that out if he does not. This looks to be a high action fight with Salido looking to continue his reign and Garcia looking to prove himself to be one of the top dogs in the sport.

What should happen
Its hard to say really but I am gonna say that Garcia is as good as we think he is and soundly outpoints Salido. I will venture further to say that he will slowly break Salido down then commence the beating of a lifetime midway through the bout and eventually stop Salido in brutal fashion. Garcia needs, and probably wants, to make a statement and brutalizing Salido would be quite the statement. Salido is a hard nosed veteran and a tough nut to crack but he certainly is crackable. Garcia is technically superior and probably won't take many risks early. I look for him to slowly break Salido down and eventually stop him.

What could happen
Well, just about anything. Salido is tough and his pressure could cause problems for Garcia like it did Juanma, in fact this is his only chance at beating Garcia. He has to start early with the pressure and body work if he has any hope in this fight. It would be wise for him to try and rough Garcia up a bit, try and get him off his game. Since Garcia has less experience Salido needs to try and do this to see if this kid has the mental makeup of a fighter, if Garcia does then Salido is most likely screwed. Garcia could get ahead of himself in trying to make a statement and get drawn into a war which is where Salido has his best chance.

What I think will happen
I think Garcia punishes Salido for however long it lasts. Salido will certainly make a fight out of it, or at the very least try and make a fight of it. I think this is Garcias coming out party and I think it will be brutal.

Mayweather vs. Guerrero Prediction

On May 4 2013 Robert "The Ghost" Guerrero takes on pound for pound king Floyd "Money" Mayweather for the WBC Welterweight title. Not many give Guerrero much of a chance in this fight and I can understand why. Mayweather has beaten everyone he has ever faced and has fought at such a high level for such a long time that it is inconceivable to bet against him. Guerrero has impressed us all in recent fights, namely in moving up from lightweight to welterweight and stomping Andre Berto in a brutal 12 round beatdown.

On the May
Mayweather has always done his business and there is something to be said for that, granted there are many of his fights that are boring or too one sided. As of late I have noticed a few things that may give the Ghost an edge in this fight. Floyd has certainly aged as a fighter, he is not nearly as light on his feet and has been in tougher and tougher fights. He is still unbelievable despite this fact but he struggled early against the faded Shane Mosley, even getting rocked a few times early. Against Cotto, who is believed to be well past his prime after beatings by Margarito and Pacquiao, and many other hard fights, Mayweather struggled. Granted, he outpointed Cotto but often times Cotto was able to have his way and landed more punches on Mayweather than anyone that I can recall. To put it simply, Mayweather has become more stationary. This fact has made him far more exciting than previously, but it makes him an easy target. I think Mayweather, while still great, is on the dark side of his career and his skills have faded ever so slightly.

On the Ghost
Guerrero has come a long way in the last few years. Recently he moved up to welterweight, from lightweight, and out pointed hard punching but relatively unknown Selcuk Aydin. After that he fought Andre Berto, a fight many did not think Guerrero could win, let alone be competitive. The result? Guerrero manhandled Berto for 12 rounds. Thats not to say Berto did not have his moments, because he did, landing some vicious inside punches. To Guerrero's credit, he took them and never once seemed to be fazed in the slightest. Another thing that shocked even me was Guerrero's ability to sustain such a frantic pace throughout the fight. All that being said, Berto is no Mayweather and Guerrero will have his hands full come May.

What should happen
It should be a high action fight with Guerrero looking to make his mark early and Mayweather most likely looking to counter. Guerrero is going to make Mayweather earn every penny. It would be wise for Guerrero to fight Floyd like he fought Berto, rough. Make it a street fight, and most likely he will. Despite that, Floyd should fight through it and win a close but exciting fight.

What could happen
I alluded to the fact that I think Mayweather is on the downside of his career and his skills faded slightly. It is possible that Guerrero is catching Mayweather at the perfect time in his career to pull off the upset. It won't be easy, Guerrero is going to have to take some firepower to get there, but he is a determined man that has a good chin and a good punch. Judging by Mayweathers last fight against Cotto it is a very real possibility that Guerrero surprises us all, Floyd especially, and beats him up for twelve rounds. If Guerrero fights his fight, an upset is a very real possibility.

What I think will happen
As much as I love Guerrero and want him to win as this outcome would likely be better for the boxing game, I am not sure it is going to happen. Part of me says he will upset Mayweather, the other says there is no way. What I do think is that this will be a great fight but I think Mayweather will most likely win the fight.

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Bernard Hopkins, Greatest of All Time?


It sometimes seems that when we have a great thing in front of us, it is not appreciated until its not there anymore. For a long time I did not like Hopkins, in fact I often rooted against him. However in recent years I have become a big fan. Watching him defy all the odds and completely dominate these younger guys, even in losing he is competitive to the point of at least making the fight close.  At 48 he is set to fight the young strong bull in Tavoris Cloud, should he beat Cloud to win the IBF strap, I think it would be time to consider him one of the greatest fighters of all time. First, there is his record 20 defenses of the middleweight title over a 10 year period. Then of course the smack down he put on Tarver, who was supposed to retire Hopkins. The beat down he put on Pavlik, who was supposed beat up the old man and move on to bigger and better things. Then Jean Pascal whom he so thoroughly dominated that he was doing push ups in between rounds.

Hopkins has already cemented a legacy that will last for a very long time but the fact that he keeps going and at 48 is still able to beat, let alone compete, with these younger, stronger, and faster guys is absolutely astonishing. Generally when a fighter continues to fight at this age, we watch with a heavy heart but we watch, if we watch at all, in the hopes that something happens, that he lands a big shot. That happened with Foreman against Michael Moorer, but that is a rarity. Even more rare is that a guy like Hopkins doesn't need to land that one big shot because he can rely on his boxing skills! Yes, at 48 the man has the legs of a 30 year old. His stamina is still unbelievable and it makes you wonder, is he lying about his age?

Come March 9th, I expect Hopkins to do it again, and probably to continue to keep "doing it" against all the odds. One thing I know is that when Hopkins is told that he cannot do something, he generally proves everyone else wrong. The day that he has a fight and everyone says "you can beat him" then maybe I will say, he might lose.

Saturday, January 5, 2013

Hopkins vs Cloud Prediction

On March 9th the 47 year old Bernard Hopkins will once again try and defy the odds by taking on IBF Light Heavyweight champion Tavoris Cloud. I was never a big Bernard Hopkins fan, at least when he was dominating the middleweight division with a record 20 title defenses (it may be more than that actually). However, when he began beating much younger and seemingly stronger fighters, I could not help but fall in love with the guy. It is not often that a great fighter is able to adapt his style to his aging body. Generally as a fighter ages they deny the fact that they are slowing a bit and make little to no change in their style which opens them up to more punishment. Hopkins is one of the rare fighters that has been able to adapt as he ages, enabling him to compete at a world class level well into his fourties, which is something you have to see to believe. I am positive that nobody expected him to last against Antonio Tarver, but lone behold, he took Tarver to school. Same with Kelly Pavlik who was soaring when he fought Hopkins. The Executioner lived up to his name putting a beating on Pavlik and being the first to blemish his record. In fact, that fight was not even close, it was probably the aging warriors best performance. More recently Hopkins defeated the younger stronger and very powerful Jean Pascal. To add insult to injury Hopkins actually did push ups in between rounds!

That being said, Hopkins has not always looked stellar. In his last fight against Chad Dawson, Hopkins was outpointed by his younger and much faster foe, though he was still competitive, he clearly lost the fight. In a long awaited rematch with Roy Jones Jr. a few fights prior to that, Hopkins actually looked old. The fight was a foul filled affair, and this surprised me because Jones Jr. is well beyond his best and Hopkins should have been able to knock him out, however, he still got the win. The question is, can he compete against Cloud who is young, very strong, and very powerful?

Tavoris Cloud has seemingly every advantage going into this fight, except experience. The major problem with Cloud is that he is terribly inactive for such a young fighter, he only fought once in 2012, 2011, and twice in 2010. He is a very solid fighter but also has very limited experience. Common sense says that Cloud is too much for Hopkins, but history tells a different tale. Hopkins has had little trouble with pressure fighters, he dismantled Pavlik, who was supposedly stronger, he schooled Pascal who again was supposed to be too much for Hopkins.

We know Cloud is a strong powerful man, but there are still some unanswered questions that Hopkins should be able to provide. Can Cloud take a good punch? Hopkins is not known as a power puncher but has demonstrated the ability to punch when he needs to, he just generally does not look for the knockout. Can Cloud go 12 hard rounds? Despite Hopkins being 47, he is still a masterful boxer that is always in tremendous shape and unless he ages rapidly overnight, I doubt he will have trouble boxing all night. Hopkins conserves energy because he is unbelievably intelligent and calm in the ring. The only way that can change is if Cloud can somehow manage to dictate the pace of the fight. Now, on to the predictions.

What should happen
The younger fighter Cloud should walk his older foe down, breaking him down over the course of the fight. The aging warrior will go into survival mode looking solely to survive the fight and nothing else. If Cloud does not stop him late, he will win a majority decision.

What could happen
Cloud very well could be too much for Hopkins and he could just completely overwhelm him and stop him quickly. Hopkins could once again surprise us all and put on another dazzling performance which would certainly solidify his place amongst the all time greats.

What I think will happen
I am calling the upset. I think Hopkins puts on a masterful display of boxing and ring savvy yet again. Cloud is made to order for Hopkins, he is right in front of you and he isn't going anywhere. This should, in my opinion, be easy pickings for Hopkins who should cruise to a unanimous decision and win yet another title. It is also possible that Hopkins puts such a beating on Cloud, as he did to Pavlik, that he stops Cloud late.

Bernard Hopkins Highlights

Tavoris Cloud Highlights (vs Glen Johnson)


Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Golovkin vs Rosado Prediction


On January 19th we get to see just how good Gennady Golovkin is. Sporting an 87% knockout ratio, Golovkin has been impressive, albeit against limited opposition. The best win on his ledger is a 10th round TKO over faded star Kassim Ouma. Rosado, on the other hand, has beaten some quality opposition and has been on somewhat of a roll since his last loss in July of 10. He also stopped the usually durable Sechew Powell in 9 rounds in 2012, which was a great year for Rosado.

This is a difficult one to call for me. On one hand you have the flawed, yet more experienced, Rosado who seems to fold under pressure, like he did against Angulo. The other you have the complete unknown Golovkin.

What should happen
Well, if all goes well it should be an early night for Golovkin, who seems to be the bigger puncher and the stronger guy. Rosado has only been stopped once, by Angulo, but then again he has not really fought too many big punchers. Powell hurt him a couple of times but lost that fight because he seemed intent on landing one punch at a time instead of rely on his jab. So, if Golovkin is who we all think he is, then he should walk through anything Rosado offers and either stop him early or beat him into submission for a late stoppage.

What could happen
Rosado could surprise us like he did against Powell and use his experience to outclass Golovkin, and maybe Golovkin is not what we think he is.  Maybe he has a weak chin, we don't know yet. Because there are a lot of question marks with Golovkin, seemingly anything can happen. He could have a weak chin, he could possibly have terrible stamina, maybe he gets frustrated easily, we just don't know.

What I think will happen
I think Golovkin will maul Rosado, but as long as Rosado is there he will make a fight out of it. I think it will be an early night for Golovkin.