Stevenson vs Bellew, Fight Analysis

On November 30th Tony Bellew challenges light heavyweight champion Adonis Stevenson. It seems that some think this is going to be a good matchup and a good scrap, I on the other hand think this is going to be another quick and decisive win for the surging Stevenson. First lets look at a few of Bellews recent opponents. Bellew believes himself to be a puncher, but with a 54% knockout ratio against limited opposition, I have to seriously question his belief. In contrast, Stevenson has an impressive 82% knockout ratio, and against much higher opposition. Bellew fought a close match with Nathan Cleverly but lost that decision, after that his most notable opponent is the hard punching, but shopworn Edison Miranda. Those are literally the only two names of note on Bellews ledger, if we take a look at Stevensons list of opponents we see a much different story. I had personally written Stevenson off in his 2010 knockout loss to gatekeeper Darnell Boone, a very tough but limited opponent. I paid little attention to him until his 2013 rematch with him. I was pleasantly surprised at how improved Stevenson was in that 3 years time. He dominated Boone from the outset and then punctuated that performance with a brutal sixth round knockout. To me, that said a lot about the character of Stevenson, not only in coming back after a knockout, but improving that much and then beating the hell out of the man who stopped him.

It didn't stop there, in a matchup against Chad Dawson, Stevenson showed just how devastating his punching power really was in destroying Dawson with one single punch in the first round. Granted, Dawson had just lost to a great, but feather fisted, Andre Ward by stoppage. After that Stevenson was matched up against tough, rugged, and powerful Tavoris Cloud who was looking to bounce back after a decision loss to the ageless wonder Bernard Hopkins. Not only did Stevenson look far better than Hopkins did, putting on a masterful display of boxing prowess, he actually beat Cloud so bad that Cloud ended up quitting on his stool. Adonis has some good names on his ledger but still has something to prove and perhaps he can against the hungry Tony Bellew. Tony does not have the experience that Stevenson does, but has shown his ability to compete with the likes of Cleverly and that he can take a good punch against Miranda. Tony is a hungry opponent who is in good shape, is tough, and in his prime.

What should happen?
Tony should give a good account of himself as long as his chin holds up. If he can take Stevensons punch then he will give a good go, but that will likely only prolong the beating that he will inevitably take. Stevenson is soaring with his last few fights and is not going to be easy to discourage. Not only can Stevenson punch, he has quick hands and can box very well. He will likely come out cautious to see what Bellew offers, but it wont be very long until the beat down will commence. Stevenson is likely to keep the fight at range and choose his shots carefully. Simply because I have not seen Bellew take a shot from this type of puncher, it will likely end within 6 rounds.

Stevenson KO inside 6


What could happen?
Maybe Bellew is much better than we think, he is tough and hungry after all. He has everything to gain from winning this fight and to be honest, not much to lose. If he is able to crowd Stevenson and back him up, make it an ugly fight, oh, and take his punch, he could very well beat Stevenson in an ugly type street fight. In this instance I could see Bellew winning a close but very ugly decision.

Bellew with close decision



What I think will happen?
I think that Stevenson will come out cautious but will be looking to test the chin of Bellew. I think this will lead to an early and brutal knockout.

Stevenson early KO