Nov. 23rd Manny Pacquiao returns to the ring after his devastating one punch knockout loss to Juan Manuel Marquez to face rugged banger Brandon Rios. This fight has knockout written all over it and because Manny is coming off a knockout loss and we dont know if he has recovered mentally or not. Rios too is coming off a loss to Mike Alvarado, a decision loss in a rematch.
Brandon Rios seems made to order for Pacquiao who has superior everything to Rios. The big question is how did the knockout loss effect Manny? If Manny is on then its probably going to be short and brutal.
What should happen?
Manny should quickly shake off the rust from a nearly 1 year layoff to stop Rios either early or mid fight. If Manny is Manny I do not see any way in which Brandon can win. He does not possess the skill to land his big bombs, and against Manny he is gonna need it. He also lacks a good defense and head movement, which will prove to be lethal if Manny is on his game. But what he lacks in defense and head movement he makes up for with a granite chin.
Result: Pacquiao by KO
What could happen?
Well, maybe Manny has not recovered from the loss to Marquez. In that case Rios is the type of fighter that could really make Manny doubt himself and start fighting more defensively and unwilling to engage. The one thing Rios possesses is an iron will and if Manny is not what he once was, Rios is going to find out. In this instance Rios could end things early but it is more likely that he would still have to take some heavy artillery and wear down a broken and timid Pacquiao.
Result: Rios by late KO
What I think will happen.
Manny has continually thrived under chaos and pressure, he has performed well despite distractions in his personal life. This tells me a lot about his personality, he does not seem to care about things, even a knockout loss. That just seems like his personality and despite having looked flat against Bradley, I do not think Pacquiao is a shot fighter. Sure he has been in some wars, however, in many instances Pac was moving up in weight as opposed to draining himself to make a weight, which takes a serious toll on a fighter, especially if that fighter gets into a war having struggled to make weight.
Rios on the other hand has struggled to make weight several times and afterwards gone to war. In my opinion this is what quickly wears fighters down and shortens their careers. Fighters like Rios do not last long, especially when they kill themselves to make weight. This may sound crazy but I think Rios is more spent then Pacquiao and I think Pacquiaos team thinks that too, otherwise they wouldnt have chose him.
I think Pacquiao will be Pacquiao, even if he might be a bit past his prime, it wont matter against a guy like Rios who is considerably less skilled. I see Rios giving a good account of himself with his granite chin. Pac will likely fight a bit like Acosta did against Rios, utilizing superior movement, footwork, and handspeed. Since Rios is not difficult to hit it will only be a matter of time before Rios' granite chin cracks. He showed against Acosta that he can be outboxed fairly easily. If you couple that with the power of Pac, it seems fairly clear. The fight will last as long as Brandons chin can hold up. That could be 1 round and it could be 12 I dont know, I have never seen Rios against a puncher like Pacquiao.
Result: Pacquiao by KO
Important Note: As I was pouring through fight film I came upon an early fight of Brandon Rios against a Joel Ortega. It was interesting because Ortega floored Rios twice and nearly stopped him in the very first round and Ortega is a southpaw. Not sure how relevant this is since it was early in Brandons career but I thought I would note it.
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