Pacquiao vs Marquez 4

Fight Prediction

Dec. 8 2012

I have to be honest, I am not excited about this fight. The first fight between these two living legends was a classic battle, then the two seemed to settle into this boring chess match which got worse with each subsequent fight, the third being the most brutal to watch, in terms of bordom. However I still cannot help but think, hope rather, that I am wrong and that this fight turns out to be a modern day classic. Because of the magnitude of this fight, I must give a prediction, or several as I generally do. I am going to focus on Marquez because the result of the fight will depend on how he fights, we all know what Manny comes to do so in each scenario I am assuming that Manny is looking for the KO.

Scenario #1"Aggressive Marquez": Marquez has stated that he is coming to knock Pacquiao out, and its no secret that Pacquiao is gunning for the same. Marquez is technically brilliant and boxes beautifully, which is what gives Pacquiao fits, this is his bread and butter, not brawling. Pacquiao has proven that he can hurt Marquez as he has floored him 4 times in 3 fights, all he needs is the opportunity and if Marquez comes out looking for a knockout, he will certainly give Manny that chance. It is highly unlikely that Manny would not be able to take advantage of an aggressive Marquez before Marquez could do any real damage. In this case, if Marquez comes out looking for a knockout, Manny knocks him out. Possibly Manny could knock him down and send Marquez into defensive mode the rest of the night, in which case Manny would probably get another decision. Though its not impossible that Marquez gets off the deck, comes back, and gives Manny fits with his boxing style that gives Manny so many problems. It would most likely be another loss for Marquez if he comes into this fight looking to knock Manny out, he needs to stick to his boxing, that is his bread and butter and thats what troubles Manny. Looking for a knockout will only give Manny opportunities to land his bombs.
Result: In this scenario Manny wins  by another close decision, although a knockout is not out of the question.

Scenario #2 "Boxing Marquez": In essence, the result of the fight depends on how Marquez chooses to fight. If Marquez comes in looking to outbox Manny, a few things can happen. If he learned his lesson from the other fights, then he knows that he cannot go backwards all night and win, unless he is clearly outlanding Pacquiao and or his punches are having more effect. Boxing is the best game plan for Marquez and he should stick to that, the only thing he should do different is come forward intelligently. Counter punching will not win him the fight, unless he can blindly walk Pacquiao into a punch, which is unlikely to happen. We know Manny is going to be aggressive so Marquez must choose his battles wisely and then use his ring savvy and boxing skills to step out of the way and then go back to jabbing. If Marquez does this, and he certainly is capable, he can win a clear cut decision. Marquez' style gives Pacquiao all sorts of problems, so he needs to stick to it and not be overly cautious but at the same time he cannot afford to be overly aggressive.
Result: If Marquez boxes a bit more aggressively and more intelligent, especially relying on the jab, he should win a clear decision and finally get that ever elusive win against his arch rival.