On May 2nd, Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather will finally meet in the ring. Its been so long I honestly thought it would never happen. After Pacquiao lost to Bradley, and then his brutal KO loss at the hands of his nemesis Marquez, I thought this matchup was all but done. Thankfully I was wrong. I am not going to go on about my opinion as to why Mayweather made this fight so difficult to make or why Manny gave in to all the demands, I am going to strictly analyze the fighters and the potential outcome. We all know what Manny does, he comes forward, and we all know what Floyd is a master of, defense. So how exactly will this play out? I think Floyds only chance is to be defensive, that is his strong suit, laying back in his defensive shell and countering. This gives him the best chance to catch Pacquiao a-la Marquez. Even though Floyd is not that hard of a puncher, you do not need to be when countering as the momentum of the other fighter usually generates enough force for a knockout. Pacquiao has to be cautious in not falling into that trap of going after Mayweather when he is in his defensive shell, he can get in and work the body, as Floyd gives that up in his defensive shell, but then get out before Mayweather, who I think is much slower than Pacquiao, gets a chance at hitting him.
What Should Happen?
I think we all know the answer to this, Floyd should do what Floyd has done, win. Generally Floyd plays it very cautious in the early parts of the fight and as his opponent tires he turns up the heat. This has worked with great effect in the past and there is no reason to doubt it wont come May 2nd. Or is there? Floyd will have to be very cautious and be on his A game as Manny is faster and hits much harder. On top of that he gives all kinds of angles while throwing a tremendous amount of punches, whereas Floyd generally is not a very active fighter. So he need to rely on his defense and counter, I doubt he will get a knockout but its not out of the question. The thing with this is that Floyd needs to be utterly perfect and his last few fights have shown that he is not what he used to be, getting caught by Maidana and hurt. Maidana is much slower than Pacquiao. I do not see Floyd taking too many risks in this fight, he is going to try and box his way to a decision, an attempt to go at Pacquiao will prove fatal.
Result: Mayweather 12UD
What Could Happen?
Floyd seems like an unbeatable fighter, seems like it. This often happens when a fighter is great, there is an aura of invincibility about them that people become unable to see what flaws they do have. They just accept this idea that they are unbeatable. Floyd is not unbeatable, he is unbeaten. He has a very curious habit that I highlighted in my blueprint on Mayweather, when he punches, he punches very wide when not in his defensive shell. His chin is completely unprotected and his opposing hand is down. In Floyds fight with Corley we see Corley trying to take advantage of this, and he was a mediocre counterpuncher and had great success in the early going. You could see him timing Floyd and punching with Floyd, but was not fast enough to land before him. Pacquiao is and he has demonstrated that he is a brutal counterpuncher. If Floyd becomes aggressive this will become a serious problem for him. (See my earlier post on The Mayweather Blueprint which is complete with pictures to demonstrate this flaw). So if Floyd at any point becomes aggressive Manny will undoubtedly hurt him. If he does not knock Floyd out at first, he will hurt him. We have seen in the past that Floyd is more than just a pretty boxer, he wants to get back at someone who hurt him and he will likely try. This will open him up more for the precise power punching of Pacquiao and effectively end his night in brutal fashion.
Result: Pacquiao KO
What I Think Will Happen?
I think Pacquiao plays its smart and safe in the early going. He is probably not going to be overly aggressive but try and get Floyd to take the lead. This could present the fans with a bit of a bore fest for a bit as neither fighter will likely take the lead, both looking to counter. It is only a matter of time before Floyd gets tagged good, maybe a few times even, before he tries to take it to Manny. The moment Floyd becomes the aggressor the fight is Pacquiaos. The defensive lapse I highlighted when Floyd is the aggressor is known by the Pacquiao camp and they, I am sure, have worked on nailing him when he comes forward. Since Mayweather has been hurt by Corley, Judah, and Shane, all with one punch, what is going to happen when Pacquiao lands successive punches?
Result: Pacquiao KO 1-9
Excellent pre-fight analysis!
ReplyDeleteHere are my post-fight thoughts, from a layman's perspective. I am certainly not a boxing expert by any means, so feel free to correct me if you think I am off base in my summary:
I was disappointed that Manny Pacquiao lost tonight, but I have to give credit where credit is due. Floyd Mayweather fought a brilliant fight. You may not like his style. You may not like his lack of aggression and his defensive strategy. But nobody can argue with his effectiveness as a boxer.
This is not MMA or professional wrestling. This is boxing. And there’s a reason that boxing is called the “sweet science.” Success in boxing is not determined by rage or brute power. There is a cerebral aspect to the sport that is underappreciated by the casual fan. There were no knockdowns in this match. There was no blood spilled. There were really no staggering blows delivered. People are saying that this fight was boring, that it was a huge disappointment. But I saw it differently. What I watched was a brilliant tactician who controlled and dictated the fight for 12 rounds. Even when his own corner was urging him to be more aggressive, Floyd Mayeather refused to deviate from what he does best. He remained defensive and scored points on precise counter punches. Whenever Pacquiao tried to bait him into a brawl, Mayweather remained patient and technical, staying true to his form and refusing to allow Manny to shape the style of the fight.
More than almost any other sport, it is extremely difficult to control your emotions and remain disciplined in a boxing match. The boxer is receiving blows to his head and body, his cardio vascular stamina is being brutally tested, and he is constantly urged by fans to prove his machismo and show his pugilistic valor. It is easy for boxers to allow their emotions to overcome their judgment. It is easy for them to let anger corrupt their strategy. But Mayweather remained cool, calm, and calculated for 12 rounds. Fans will criticize his style, but his undefeated record of 48-0 is unassailable.
Floyd Mayweather will not go down in history as one of the bravest fighters ever. He will not be remembered as a warrior or as a boxer with the biggest heart. But he will be forever known as one of the greatest technical fighters in the history of the sport, and one of the smartest to ever step into the ring.
What I witnessed tonight was pure brilliance. The casual baseball fan will think that a no hitter is boring. The casual football fan will not appreciate a defensive struggle. And many people are already criticizing the methodical manner in which Mayweather won tonight. But this is the way he usually wins. This was no accident. Mayweather wanted the fight to be exactly the way it was, and he had the discipline, the character, and the intelligence to dictate the nature of the fight to his advantage. I have to admire and appreciate that, even if I was pulling for Manny.
I will also acknowledge that while I dislike much of the way Floyd Mayweather conducts himself outside of the ring, I think he showed tremendous class in his victory tonight. He praised Manny Pacquiao repeatedly and acted very gracious about his victory. He also repeatedly gave thanks to God and emphasized the love he has for his family.
So congrats to a wonderful boxer on a brilliant win. I saw greatness tonight, and I have to respect it.
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ReplyDeleteMay weather is regarded as one of those boxer, who never gives up no matter the situation may be.
ReplyDeleteMay weather is regarded as one of those boxer, who never gives up no matter the situation may be.
ReplyDeleteMay weather is regarded as one of those boxer, who never gives up no matter the situation may be.
ReplyDelete