This Saturday boxing fans will be treated to a great matchup, Saul "canelo" Alvarez vs James Kirkland. On paper this does seem to be a great matchup and will, again on paper, shape up to be a great fight. There are many factors in this fight that could make it end up as a dud or a war. First there is James Kirkland. The man seemed unstoppable when he was with Ann Wolfe, without her he looked less than stellar, even losing by brutal 1st round TKO by the light punching Nobuhiro Ishida. This fight he has opted not to train with Wolfe for reasons we have yet to learn. However, his current trainer may be unknown but has worked in the corner with Kirkland so he is familiar with Kirkland and I think that could prove the difference. Wolfe seems to be able to bring something out of Kirkland that nobody else has. Perhaps his current trainer can do this, and if he can that would be very good for boxing fans.
Saul Alvarez, or Canelo, is a hugely popular fighter in Mexico, namely because he is a white red headed Mexican. Personally I am not sold on Canelo. I have not really seen him shine as of yet, and after 46 fights I thought I would have seen why he is a star. Even in his brutal knockout of the usually iron chinned Baldomir, Canelo looked very average up until that point. Against people like Rhodes and Hatton he should have really shined, but to me looked like a mediocre fighter, a good solid guy but mediocre. Mayweather put a punctuation on this point as he made Canelo look like your average run of the mill fighter, but then again Floyd does that to most everyone. The best I have seen Canelo look was against Angulo, who basically stood directly in front of Canelo with no head movement whatsoever for 10 rounds. Keep in mind knocking out Angulo took Kirkland 6 rounds, but he also got knocked down. I would also argue that Kirkland fought the better version of Angulo.
What Should Happen?
I think everyone is expecting a war in which Canelo will come out on top. If Kirkland is in good shape and Canelo can withstand the onslaught then it should be Canelo by a decision. Even though Canelo has not shown world class punching power it is possible that the Kirkland that fought Ishida comes in to fight, in that case it would be an early night for Canelo. But for what it is worth I think we should expect Canelo to win by decision.
Result: Canelo 12UD
What Could Happen?
If Kirkland comes in as the Kirkland we know and love then it is going to be a brutal affair. While Canelo was hurt by Cotto, he has otherwise shown a pretty good chin so this could come down to will and conditioning. If James is in his normal condition then there is no reason to think he cannot brutalize Canelo for the majority of the fight. I am not quite sure what Canelo has in him as a fighter. He has shown a tendency to slow way down in the later part of the fight. If James can keep up a fast pace even in the later rounds then Canelo is in real trouble. In this instance its possible, and very likely, that Kirkland gets a late round stoppage in a very brutal fight.
Result: Kirkland by late TKO
What I Think Will Happen?
I am not sure to be honest. Depending on what Kirkland comes in depends on what kind of fight we are in for, a long brutal war of attrition or an early ko loss for Kirkland. I just do not know how Kirkland is going to be with his new trainer. We know Canelo, he fights the same way every single time out. Decent boxer, good chin, decent speed but nothing really spectacular. At least we haven't really seen anything spectacular from him. If the real Kirkland comes in, he is going to test Canelo and test him early. I will say this, if the real Kirkland comes in, he will win. If the fake Kirkland comes in, he loses. I am just not impressed with Canelo.
Result: ?
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