Friday, March 21, 2014

Wilder vs Scott post fight


Last saturday we got to see another bum of the month for American hopeful Deontay Wilder. I found it odd that he chose to fight his friend Malik Scott as opposed to someone else that is not his friend and possibly more accomplished. Allegedly he gets a shot at the Stiverne vs. Arreola winner, but why does he deserve that? He has literally fought nothing but bums and spent fighters, and in this case his friend. In my opinion from what I observed Malik took a dive for his buddy. After he got knocked down it seemed pretty clear, to me at least, that he was acting and doing a bad job at it. They ran out of bums so they had to get a friend to do a favor apparently. However, if he does fight Stiverne or Arreola then we will get to see him tested and at that point its put up or shut up and if he wins, good for him, I would be happy to see an American heavyweight champ, even if he is a girl puncher.

I dont know, I am just unimpressed with Wilder, I do not fall for the same tricks that was used to build up Tyson and others, you judge by the video below and tell me if Scott was really knocked out.







Friday, February 7, 2014

Martinez vs Cotto, pre-fight analysis



On June 7th we are going to see a mega fight, Miguel Cotto takes on middleweight champ Sergio Martinez at a catchweight just under the middleweight limit. It is truly an intriguing matchup as Sergio has been out for some time now and Cotto has been much more active, even being highly competitive with pound for pound king Floyd Mayweather, when Cotto was perceived as being a spent force. Martinez likely has the power advantage, but Cotto is a strong pressure fighter and with Martinez' defensive lapses, Cotto has a real chance in this fight.


What should happen?
Martinez should outbox the smaller and more worn Cotto, and possibly stop him late. He may have a few scares here and there but I am not sure many people think Cotto has the ability to knock Martinez out. Martinez is grossly overrated and has not looked stellar against a good fighter since knocking Paul Williams clean out in two rounds a few years back. But, many think he is the goods, so according to what people think, Martinez should win.
Result: Martinez late KO

What could happen?
There are a couple unexpected things that could happen. Martinez has shown some pretty devastating power, namely against the iron chinned Paul Williams. He is quick and is the bigger man in this fight so its not entirely unlikely that he gets an early knockout. Cotto is usually a very sturdy guy who is very strong, even as the smaller guy he is no pushover. Given that Martinez has some serious defensive liabilities, Cotto could easily take advantage of them, floor Martinez and force him into a brawl, which would suit Cotto just fine. Cotto would then work the body to ensure Martinez isn't going to be able to run. In any even either guy could score an unexpected type win.
Result: Either by KO

What I think will happen?
While I enjoy watching Martinez, I am not sold on him being the marvelous fighter he claims to be. He has looked very mediocre against very tough but limited opposition. He fights carelessly, very carelessly, which does make for fan friendly fights, but that could cost him against Cotto. On the other hand I wonder what Cotto has left. The man has been fighting everyone since he turned pro, he has had it tough and proven every time that he belongs in that ring with the best. He is 2-1 in his last three fights, however, he lost a disputed decision to Austin Trout, one I thought that he won, and against Floyd Mayweather. Against the latter he really showed that he is not a spent force as he was competitive up until the end. I think Martinez will make a fight of it, giving Cotto problems early on, but I think that Cotto will eventually pressure Martinez so much that Martinez will oblige to fight in the trenches, and it is there that Cotto will tear up his body and wear his man down. Unlike the overweight and out of shape pothead in Chavez Jr. Cotto is coming in prepared and will likely beat Martinez down in a bloody affair.
Result: Cotto by late KO

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Pacquiao vs Bradley II, Pre Fight Analysis

I know this is a bit early but I thought I would get this out of the way now rather then possibly forgetting about it later. On April 12 Bradley will fight Pacquiao once again and hopefully the controversy from their first fight will be put to rest once and for all.

Pacquiao is coming off a 12 round beat down of always tough Brandon Rios who acted as a human punching bag for 12 rounds, really doing nothing for Pacquiao other than giving him a bit of a workout. Even in that I seen things that told me that Pacquiao is not the same man he was, still a destructive force, but more on the downside, past the bell curve so to speak. His footwork did not look nearly as sharp has before, and his footwork was amazing and enabled him to hit you 10 times and get out of the way before you threw a single punch. His hand speed is still there and his punching power hasn't likely faded, but his legs have and it seems that his killer instinct died with it.

Bradley on the other hand is coming off a decisive and very impressing one sided win over the great Juan Manuel Marquez, the man who knocked out Pacquiao so brutally. Here is the thing, if you can box Marquez and make him look ordinary, you are a damn good fighter and that is what Bradley did. By contrast his fight before that was against the Siberian Rocky Ruslan Provodnikov, and it was an all out war. Bradley got knocked down a couple times and at times looked completely out on his feet. I still have no idea how he was able to weather that storm and come back to win, but he did. The man is tough as nails and as his last fight proved, he is coming into his prime if he isn't already there. It should be interesting.

What should happen?
I think everyone is expecting Pacquiao to win and this time win decisively. He is not going to casually box this time but likely go in there more aggressive than he did last time. Pac should be on his 'A' game and beat up Bradley and eventually stop him late. Bradley cannot be in many more wars so in this instance Pac stops him late.
Result: Pacquiao late KO

What could happen?
Pacquiao could get over aggressive and get caught with a counter. The difference between getting caught by Marquez and Bradley is huge, Marquez can punch and Bradley can't. So he might knock Pacquiao down but likely not out, unless he walks him into a counter. Bradley could also school Pacquiao and if he boxes like he did against Marquez, this certainly could happen, he could embarrass Pacquiao.
Result: Bradley UD12

What I think will happen?
Bradley comes in smart like he did against Marquez and looks to counter as an on rushing Pacquiao tries to knock him out. Bradley counters Pacquiao for as long as Pacquiao is willing to take it, he out points Pacquiao in every aspect, keeping calm and not getting drawn into a war, Bradley is going to silence his critics on April 12th and I would not be surprised if he walks Pac down and stops him late, all but ending Pac's career.
Result: Bradley Late KO or UD12, a clear decision this time.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Jennings vs Szpilka Post Fight Analysis



Last Saturday american hopeful Bryant Jennings dominated Polish Artur Szpilka, demonstrating that he is more than the golden boy hype job Deontay Wilder. Jennings fought aggressively and intelligently against the overmatched but always dangerous Szpilka, who had the better ledger and more experience coming into this fight. That being said, you would not have guessed that while watching the fight as Artur did not look like he even belonged in the same ring as Jennings. We now know that Jennings does have a solid chin, superb conditioning, and a wealth of boxing intelligence. I did not expect this fight to be as one sided as it was, but Jennings looked completely unscathed and could probably fight again in the next couple weeks. 

Mayweather vs Khan Pre Fight Analysis


A proposed matchup between pound for pound king Floyd Mayweather vs Amir Khan could become a reality, but prove a nightmare for Khan. Normally with a guy like Khan I would say that he is looking for at least one more big payday but I actually think Khan believes he can beat Mayweather. He believes that his speed and power will be enough to upset Mayweather, but how many other fighters thought that same thing? Khans defense has more holes than a kitchen strainer and a weak chin at that, speed and power is not going to get it done here. Mayweather is not Peterson or Prescott, both of whom beat Khan. Mayweather is not just a champion, or even just a multi-division champion, he is the greatest fighter of our generation, the pound for pound king. Khan is delusional if he honestly think that his amateur style has any hope of defeating Mayweather

What Should Happen
This is easy, Mayweather will do what he has done to opponents for years, he will beat Khans ass. Floyd will likely start out boxing Khan, letting Khan come to him, throw wild shots. Floyd will be getting his timing while Khan thinks that he is getting to Mayweather. Now, it all ends when Mayweather decides its going to end. Once he starts countering Khan it is only a matter of time before that trademark weak chin gets tagged and he awkwardly goes down, and gets up on spaghetti legs, dances around and eventually gets stopped.
Result: Mayweather KO 

What Could Happen
Lots of things could happen, it is boxing, but one thing that will not happen is Khan winning this fight. He has no hope, even in the could section. But, for the sake of argument, lets say that Floyd has aged considerably by the time they fight, hasn't trained and has developed cataracts which enable him to see blurs of light. Maybe, just maybe then Amir Khan might have a slight edge in the fight, but would still likely lose the fight. But in the event that all those things happen before these two get in the ring, then I would say it would be a close decision for Khan.
Result: Khan UD (assuming Floyd has cataracts, has aged 50 years, hasn't trained)

What I Think Will Happen
Simply put, what should happen. Another spanking.
Result: Mayweather KO

Ortiz vs Collazo Pre Fight Analysis



On January 30th Victor Ortiz returns to the ring against the always tough Luis Collazo in a welterweight clash. It has been nearly two years since Ortiz was last in the ring when he lost to Joesesito Lopez via a broken jaw. I am not one of the ones that got on Ortiz about quitting that night, I am sure a broken jaw hurts so I am not gonna knock the guy for quitting. I have to question his ability to come back nearly two years after two consecutive losses against Collazo. Luis Collazo is not an opponent, he is a real guy that is slick but at the same time can scrap. He is tough as nails and probably hungry to prove himself since he seems to always fall shy of winning in the bigger fights. His only real problem is that he seems to fade a bit in the later rounds, I am not sure if this is a stamina issue or he just kind of becomes a little bit lazy.

What Should Happen
Assuming Ortiz is not a shot fighter with a whole lot of ring rust and is still the same old Ortiz, he should be able to bang out a decision but it wont be easy and it could be a good scrap. Ortiz can still punch and if he lands some good punches he could force Collazo into safety mode. This would keep Ortiz coming forward and Collazo unable to do much off the back foot.
Result: Ortiz UD

What Could Happen
This is what I am hoping happens, a war. Collazo isn't likely to back down, he has a good chin too. If he decides not to box, then he could make this a war. Its really tough to tell who would win in a war, Ortiz has the power advantage but he has been off since 2012 and lost his last two fights, one in brutal fashion at the hands of Mayweather. One has to wonder how much he has left and if Collazo can take his punch I think he forces Ortiz to quit or stops him. Now, he could stop him early if Ortiz has that much ring rust or he could wear him down and stop him late, either way Collazo could win this thing in spectacular fashion.
Result: Collazo by KO or TKO

What I Think Will Happen
I think Collazo uses his superior skills to frustrate Ortiz who then amps up the pressure on Collazo. I think Collazo is going to counter punch as long as he can before the pressure becomes too much and he is forced to fight Ortiz' fight. I think Collazo outboxes Ortiz and out punches Ortiz. I think Ortiz, desperate to show he has heart, continues fighting although he has given up and is just trying to make it to the end. I just do not think Ortiz has much left at this point.
Result: Collazo by UD

Friday, January 24, 2014

Garcia vs Burgos, Pre-Fight Analysis


Saturday we have the pleasure of seeing Mikey Garcia face Juan Carlos Burgos in a super featherweight title clash. Burgos is the typical Mexican warrior who comes to fight and has demonstrated a strong chin and an iron will that will be difficult for Garcia to break. Garcia has the superior technique, speed, and power. He made Orlando Salido look like an amateur, and Salido is not exactly an easy nut to crack, but Garcia cracked him, repeatedly. He has since looked pretty stellar in his wins, aside from a knockdown in his last fight against Roman Martinez. Burgos is coming off two consecutive draws, one against Roman Martinez, the same Roman Martinez that Garcia beat the living hell out of. But, as we know in boxing that is not an indication of what is going to happen when these two fighters meet, styles make fights, and so do Mexican badasses.


What should happen?
Garcia should dominate in every single area, using his awesome boxing intelligence to outwit the iron willed Burgos. He will likely keep him at a distance and do what he has to in order to win without taking too many risks and if the opportunity presents itself, he will go for the KO. This would likely result in a technical mismatch and another one sided boxing clinic from Garcia.
Result: Garcia UD12, possibly late KO

What could happen?
Assuming Burgos can take the best Garcia has to offer, he could keep the pressure on and force this into a brawl, which is his best chance at a win. If he can sustain this pressure and take Garcias punch, he could wear Garcia down and possibly expose a not so great chin, which thus far has not really been tested much.
Result: Burgos late TKO

What I think will happen?
I think Garcia puts on another clinic, but the toughness of Burgos will eventually overcome the disparity in talent and turn it into an all out war. I think Garcia has the tools to handle a trench war and prove to everyone that he can go to war. Garcia is devastatingly accurate with his punches and he can punch on top of that, I do not see Burgos being able to overcome that but I think he will make a war of it while hes in there.
Result: 8th Round KO for Garcia

Jennings vs Szpilka, Pre-Fight Analysis


This saturday on the undercard of Garcia vs Burgos, Bryant Jennings takes on Artur Szpilka. There are quite a few boxing fans who have not heard of Jennings or have heard of him but not seen him fight. Szpilka has been exposed to the american public on a few occasions but in those occasions, while he won, he did not look like anything spectacular. For whatever reason Deontay Wilder gets more attention than Bryant Jennings who has arguably fought the better opposition, has the better skill set, and is just plain easier to listen to when he talks.

Szpilka has shown an unreliable chin, being hurt by Jameel Mccline, and floored by Mike Mollo in both of their fan friendly wars. Jennings in contrast has always been consistent and I think the reason he does not have more knockouts is for the simple fact that he is such an intelligent fighter and doesn't rush in looking for the KO. Szpilka on the other hand is a straight foreward pressure fighter who often has defensive lapses in his offensive attacks.

What should happen?
I think people are expecting Szpilka to beat Jennings, but I have not even checked the odds on this one. Both guys are at a similar stage in their career, both have fought a few guys, Szpilka probably has a better ledger, but not by much. So its really a close call as to what should happen, its way too even.
Result: Szpilka UD

What could happen?
One thing Szpilka can do is punch. Jennings has shown that he has some pop, enough to get respect at least and probably enough to hurt Szpilka who has shown vulnerabilities in the past. It could be a quick night in favor of either fighter.
Result: Jennings by early KO 

What I think will happen?
I think Jennings schools Szpilka and if he doesnt stop him early he is going to put a beating on Szpilka and then either he stops him or Szpilka quits. Jennings has shown consistency, enough of it that I can say confidently that he has the goods. He is still untested but I have a feeling about him and I think he is going to crush Szpilka. One thing we know for sure, there is going to be some chin checking in this fight, assuming Jennings does not have a chin like Michael Bennett, he should win handily.
Result: Jennings KO






Friday, January 3, 2014

Stiverne vs Arreola II, Fight Analysis

Sometime in early 2014 we are going to be treated to a rematch of two hard hitting heavyweights, Bermane Stiverne and Chris Arreola. The pair last fought in April of last year in what was a fairly exciting matchup that saw Arreola being largely out gunned for most of the fight, even being floored hard in the third. Arreola said that this was his first real loss as he came into the fight in spectacular shape, which has not always been the case for him. He has shown that he is taking boxing serious now and since the two are fighting for the WBC title vacated by Vitali Klitschko it should be a barn burner.

I look for Stiverne to implement the same game plan that he did in their first meeting, and he should, it was very effective. Stiverne showed great poise and some good boxing skills in allowing Arreola to come forward and then countering all he had to offer. Stiverne, being a big puncher, can get away with a low punch out put and since Arreola is going to be coming forward there are plenty of opportunities to land counter shots.

What strategy is Arreola going to try to implement this time? I think it would be wise of time to rely heavily on the jab to work his way inside and crowd Stiverne, working the body as much as possible. He has to apply pressure, that is what he is good at, but he has to be intelligent when doing so. Stiverne is a real puncher and running into any one of them would end Arreola's dream of becoming a world champion. Simply put, rely on the jab to work your way in and move your head.

What should happen?
Quite simply it should be a repeat of their first meeting, maybe a bit more of a furious pace since there is a title at stake, but same result.

What could happen?
With these guys, anything could happen. There are a number of scenarios that could be run through as both guys are tough and both guys can punch. Each guy has a good amateur pedigree and are fairly versatile for big punchers.

What I think will happen?
I think Arreola is going to fight better than he ever has. He as been more active than Stiverne and he is still surprisingly hungry to win the title. I think he takes advantage of Stivernes low level of activity and slowly walks him down. I say Arreola by 12 UD or possibly a late stoppage. If Arreola can keep up a fast pace whilst not taking a lot of punishment, he can tire Stiverne out and win a decision and possibly, as I said, a stoppage late.