The Return of James Kirkland

On Dec 7th we will see the return of the man who calls himself the Mandingo Warrior, James Kirkland. Kirkland has been inactive for about two years due to legal issues involving his contract and promoter, with that taken care of he is set for his return. With his new promoter, 50 cent, comes a new trainer, Bob Santos who trains Robert Guerrero. It is tough to know what kind of shape Kirkland is in both mentally and physically, after his last bout against awkward tough guy Carlos Molina, Kirkland claimed that his corner gave him some mysterious black pills that disabled him during the fight. Even though his post fight drug test came back negative, Kirkland maintained this conspiratorial attitude and consequently fired his team. The last time Kirkland had a new trainer he looked less than mediocre against less than mediocre opposition, having difficulty making weight and even beating lesser opponents. He then went on to get totally demolished in one round by the light punching Nobuhiro Ishida. After this embarrassing loss, Kirkland made up with his former trainer Ann Wolfe and the two came back against hard punching mexican warrior Alfredo Angulo. Kirkland looked in top form, despite a first round knockdown, and dismantled the hard nosed Angulo in 6, knocking him down for the first time in his life. So, with a new trainer I have to assume Kirkland will not be the same man he was with Ann Wolfe, history shows that he is less of a fighter without her in his corner. He has about 2 years of ring rust and his mental stability is in question, so perhaps the layoff did good for him.

Kirkland will be facing Glen Tapia, an undefeated, and yet to be tested, up and comer. I doubt very much that Tapia will be intimidated by Kirkland as everything seems to be working against him coming into this bout. New trainer, tons of ring rust, and questionable mental stability may all play a part in Tapia pulling off the upset as Kirkland will still likely be the favorite here.

In my personal opinion Kirkland without Ann Wolfe is nothing special and we could have seen signs of his downfall in the Molina fight. However it is difficult to tell because Molina gives everyone problems and makes everyone look bad, and Kirkland only won that fight because Molina was DQ'd when his corner entered the ring before the bell rang.

I am not even going to go through what should happen, what could happen, and what I think will happen, I am just going to call it. I think Tapia is going to beat up Kirkland and it likely goes to the cards. They are either putting Kirkland in with this guy because he is easy pickings or because the only thing Kirkland has anymore is his reputation which will boost the relatively unknown Tapia onto the boxing radar. Being that Kirkland's behavior has been quite erratic I am assuming nobody really wants to work with him, so they are tossing him in against Tapia as a make or break fight. If Tapia loses then its no big deal for Top Rank, but if he wins, then hey, Arum has a new guy on the block.

Kirkland has been as erratic in the ring as he has been outside it lately, sometimes he is a seemingly indestructible force that cannot be hurt, or even bruised, like against Joel Julio and Alfredo Angulo. Other times he is plodding forward unable to land punches, like against Molina, or getting obliterated by feather fisted Ishida. Kirkland is much too erratic for me to think he can come back from such a long layoff, with a questionable state of mind and new trainer, and just pick up where he left off. Especially looking so bad against Carlos Molina in his last outing.

Kirkland is not a huge puncher, he hits hard, but relies more on accumulative punishment than anything else. Assuming Tapia has a decent chin, he is probably going to pick Kirkland apart. He is a savvy boxer who doesn't mind mixing it up a bit. On top of being a pretty good boxer, he is hungry and probably not easy to discourage. I think he is likely going to put quite a damper on Kirkland's long awaited come back and its doubtful we will ever see the destructive force that boxing enthusiasts fell in love with again.

Call: Tapia UD10 (Stoppage is highly likely if the chinny Kirkland shows up)


UPDATE: So, I have read that Kirkland is definetly back with trainer Ann Wolfe for this comeback fight. This is one of the major reasons I believed that Kirkland would lose this fight, that coupled with so many other factors, but that being the main one. Tonite we will find out of any of this has negatively affected him or not, but having Wolfe in his corner is huge. Now I am not so sure how to call this fight, but I am still going with my original call.

Adonis Stevenson vs Sergei Kovalev...if it happens

Stevenson and Kovalev have seemed to be on the path to a showdown for about a year or so, and boy is it starting to make our mouths water. Two big punchers yet two very different styles. Kovalev is a straight up bruiser who seems just as content in beating his man to a pulp for twelve rounds or stomping him early. Stevenson is quite the opposite, he is a boxer puncher that fights his opponents cautiously and is just as likely to outbox you for the full twelve as he is to ending it early. But, what will happen if they fight? It seems ever so likely after both of them displayed their craft, on the same card, last night.

What should happen?
This is tough, both are big punchers with two different styles and we have not idea if this matchup is going to make an ugly fight or explosive fight. We know both men can certainly punch so it is likely to come down to who can take who's punch and who can exploit the others defensive lapses, and Lord knows they both have them. I think that early on Stevenson, who has the speed advantage, will outwork and outbox Kovalev. Assuming Kovalev can take Stevenson's punch, he will keep coming forward looking to hit anything he can.  The biggest difference is that Stevenson often has his hands down in the middle of exchanges and I think this is where Kovalev will eventually get him. Kovalev's problem is that he often stands too tall, a typical european style. In his second fight with Darnell Boone, he was hit with numerous overhand rights in the first round, yet in the second he made the adjustment and stopped Boone in that very same round. Both guys have fought Boone twice, Stevenson was stopped by Boone the first time, while Kovalev took a close decision. Stevenson beat up Boone and then stopped him in the sixth the second go around while Kovalev destroyed Boone in his second try. I think that as the fight progresses Stevenson will start to slow down and Kovalev will start finding his range. I think he will start getting into more exchanges, and the more he does the higher the chance of Stevenson getting caught and stopped. Despite that I still think Stevenson will be the betting favorite.

Call: Kovalev KO 10

What could happen?
Well, just about anything could happen in this fight. Either fighter could end things with one single punch at nearly any moment. I do think that Kovalev is the harder puncher, but Stevenson the better boxer. It could be an early night in favor of either guy, or it could be a long boring fight with Stevenson outboxing Kovalev for 12. It could be a bad style matchup and just be plain ugly, and very boring. This fight seems so even that I cannot really think of a good scenario for any prediction.

Call: Even

What I think will happen?
While Stevenson is very skilled, he has some very bad habits. The one major flaw is that when he exchanges he leaves his hands down, not even Roy Jones Jr. did this! He does have spectacular reflexes and can get away with having his hands down on the outside, but does not seem to remember to bring them up on the inside. Kovalev is one of those guys that doesn't just punch, but exploits defensive deficiencies in his opponents. He does not just come to beat a guy until he falls by winging punches, and thats what makes him even more dangerous. Assuming Kovalev can take Stevenson's punch, he will eventually exploit this glaring flaw in Stevenson's virtually non-existent defense and eventually stop him. Kovalev is no defensive master either, but he keeps his hands up and is able to move his head...when he wants to. Neither man has slayed a dragon so it really is difficult to tell how much of either man is hype. I would say that Stevenson has the better ledger of the two but Stevenson has been stopped and has those flaws I mentioned above, which will likely lead to him being stopped late.

Call: Kovalev KO 10

Stevenson vs Bellew, Fight Analysis

On November 30th Tony Bellew challenges light heavyweight champion Adonis Stevenson. It seems that some think this is going to be a good matchup and a good scrap, I on the other hand think this is going to be another quick and decisive win for the surging Stevenson. First lets look at a few of Bellews recent opponents. Bellew believes himself to be a puncher, but with a 54% knockout ratio against limited opposition, I have to seriously question his belief. In contrast, Stevenson has an impressive 82% knockout ratio, and against much higher opposition. Bellew fought a close match with Nathan Cleverly but lost that decision, after that his most notable opponent is the hard punching, but shopworn Edison Miranda. Those are literally the only two names of note on Bellews ledger, if we take a look at Stevensons list of opponents we see a much different story. I had personally written Stevenson off in his 2010 knockout loss to gatekeeper Darnell Boone, a very tough but limited opponent. I paid little attention to him until his 2013 rematch with him. I was pleasantly surprised at how improved Stevenson was in that 3 years time. He dominated Boone from the outset and then punctuated that performance with a brutal sixth round knockout. To me, that said a lot about the character of Stevenson, not only in coming back after a knockout, but improving that much and then beating the hell out of the man who stopped him.

It didn't stop there, in a matchup against Chad Dawson, Stevenson showed just how devastating his punching power really was in destroying Dawson with one single punch in the first round. Granted, Dawson had just lost to a great, but feather fisted, Andre Ward by stoppage. After that Stevenson was matched up against tough, rugged, and powerful Tavoris Cloud who was looking to bounce back after a decision loss to the ageless wonder Bernard Hopkins. Not only did Stevenson look far better than Hopkins did, putting on a masterful display of boxing prowess, he actually beat Cloud so bad that Cloud ended up quitting on his stool. Adonis has some good names on his ledger but still has something to prove and perhaps he can against the hungry Tony Bellew. Tony does not have the experience that Stevenson does, but has shown his ability to compete with the likes of Cleverly and that he can take a good punch against Miranda. Tony is a hungry opponent who is in good shape, is tough, and in his prime.

What should happen?
Tony should give a good account of himself as long as his chin holds up. If he can take Stevensons punch then he will give a good go, but that will likely only prolong the beating that he will inevitably take. Stevenson is soaring with his last few fights and is not going to be easy to discourage. Not only can Stevenson punch, he has quick hands and can box very well. He will likely come out cautious to see what Bellew offers, but it wont be very long until the beat down will commence. Stevenson is likely to keep the fight at range and choose his shots carefully. Simply because I have not seen Bellew take a shot from this type of puncher, it will likely end within 6 rounds.

Stevenson KO inside 6


What could happen?
Maybe Bellew is much better than we think, he is tough and hungry after all. He has everything to gain from winning this fight and to be honest, not much to lose. If he is able to crowd Stevenson and back him up, make it an ugly fight, oh, and take his punch, he could very well beat Stevenson in an ugly type street fight. In this instance I could see Bellew winning a close but very ugly decision.

Bellew with close decision



What I think will happen?
I think that Stevenson will come out cautious but will be looking to test the chin of Bellew. I think this will lead to an early and brutal knockout.

Stevenson early KO

Tor Hamer does it again

Well, Tor Hamer quit again. The past saturday on the undercard of Pacquiao vs Rios, Tor Hamer squared off against Andy Ruiz Jr. in what looked to be a great matchup on paper. In the beginning it thats exactly what it looked like it was going to be, one damn good heavyweight scrap. Hamer came out smoking, pounding on the soft body of Ruiz and for the first two rounds both guys put on a pretty good show. The third round, however, was all Ruiz as he beat Hamer down and subsequently caused him to retire after that round. It seems that anytime things are not going Hamers way, he quits. Look, I get it, I have been in there and I know it is tough but this is boxing. Hamer needs to find a new line of work if he is going to fold everytime things don't go his way, he looks great until his opponents fight back, then he inexplicably quits.

Pacquiao vs Rios, in perspective

November 23rd Manny Pacquiao returned to the ring against tough contender Brandon Rios. After two consecutive losses and coming off a KO loss Manny returned to the win column with a dominating performance. To describe it in one word, beating. That is exactly what Brandon Rios got saturday night, a 12 round beat down, to his credit, he remained standing. The boxing public was wondering if Manny was the same fighter after such a devastating loss, and I think he answered that question last night. Manny looked like Manny, but with a slight twist. He seemed much more content to fight more cautiously as opposed the furious pace he maintained earlier in his career, often rushing in guns blazing. I also noticed that he rarely, if ever, feinted before launching his vaunted straight left, a move that got him knocked out in his last outing against Marquez. Pacquiao's speed was clearly intact, as was his brilliant footwork and his great reflexes. All in all, I do not think he is shot or even passed his prime, just fighting a hell of a lot smarter.

As for Rios? Well, I did not give him much of a chance as he is made to order for Manny, which is probably another reason Manny looked stellar last night. The bad thing is that Rios took a beating, and a lot of punches to the head. At one point it was clear that Rios was much slower and really did not have any hope of winning the fight, I was sure that Robert Garcia would save his fighter from further punishment, but instead he sent him out again and again. For me it was sad because taking that amount of punishment will inevitably have an effect on anyone, and its not worth it. Especially when you have to land a knock out punch against a guy that you couldnt catch before you were beaten up. Shame on Robert Garcia for allowing Rios to take so much unnecessary punishment.

On a side note, Robert Garcia got under my skin in the whole gym argument fiasco. Freddie Roach politely asked Robert Garcia to leave since it was time for Pacquiao to work out, as Garcia and company were running late. Garcia immediately became defensive and disrespectful which inevitably led to a confrontation. The classless Ariza actually incited this by kicking Roach and then accusing Roach of racial slurs, which I did not hear. Incidentally Garcia who was right next to roach did not hear it either. Ariza then began mocking Roach's parkinsons disease. I respect what Garcia has done with some of his fighters, but his camp is completely classless and it showed on fight night when he allowed his fighter to take way too many hard punches to the body and head, but most of the punches landed on the head of Rios and landed flush and hard. Shame on Garcia.

Froch vs Groves, in perspective

On November 23rd Froch and Groves put on quite a spectacular war which saw both men rocked on many occasions but sadly it ended in controversy. Groves came out aggressive, backing Froch up for most of the round. Both fighters seemed to fight on even terms until Groves nailed Froch mid exchange, right on the chin, and sent him down hard and in serious trouble. Groves could not finish a very unsteady Froch in the first and certainly gained his respect. The fight was quite literally a war, every round after that each fighter took turns landing their best, so much so that I myself was feeling it! In the 9th round Froch seemed to really turn it on, hurting Groves seriously. Before Groves ever even went down or Froch could finish him off, the referee inexplicably stepped in and waved it off, despite the protests from Groves. I will say this, I would much rather a fight be stopped too early than too late. In hindsight, yes maybe it was a bit too premature, but its better than too late. These guys will likely lace up and duke it out again, had it been a late stoppage perhaps Groves never would have laced up again.

Groves impressed me last night. I never seen him fight and did not even bother posting an analysis of the fight as I assumed Froch would walk through him. To my surprise he nearly got beat in the first stanza. I do not think it was that Froch was an old 36 but that Groves is on his level. Froch did what Froch does, its just that Groves was clearly underestimated and well prepared for the task at hand. The rematch will tell if this was a fluke or if Groves is the real deal.

Pacquiao vs Rios Fight Analysis

Nov. 23rd Manny Pacquiao returns to the ring after his devastating one punch knockout loss to Juan Manuel Marquez to face rugged banger Brandon Rios. This fight has knockout written all over it and because Manny is coming off a knockout loss and we dont know if he has recovered mentally or not. Rios too is coming off a loss to Mike Alvarado, a decision loss in a rematch.

Brandon Rios seems made to order for Pacquiao who has superior everything to Rios. The big question is how did the knockout loss effect Manny? If Manny is on then its probably going to be short and brutal.

What should happen?
Manny should quickly shake off the rust from a nearly 1 year layoff to stop Rios either early or mid fight. If Manny is Manny I do not see any way in which Brandon can win. He does not possess the skill to land his big bombs, and against Manny he is gonna need it. He also lacks a good defense and head movement, which will prove to be lethal if Manny is on his game. But what he lacks in defense and head movement he makes up for with a granite chin.

Result: Pacquiao by KO

What could happen?
Well, maybe Manny has not recovered from the loss to Marquez. In that case Rios is the type of fighter that could really make Manny doubt himself and start fighting more defensively and unwilling to engage. The one thing Rios possesses is an iron will and if Manny is not what he once was, Rios is going to find out. In this instance Rios could end things early but it is more likely that he would still have to take some heavy artillery and wear down a broken and timid Pacquiao.

Result: Rios by late KO

What I think will happen.
Manny has continually thrived under chaos and pressure, he has performed well despite distractions in his personal life. This tells me a lot about his personality, he does not seem to care about things, even a knockout loss. That just seems like his personality and despite having looked flat against Bradley, I do not think Pacquiao is a shot fighter. Sure he has been in some wars, however, in many instances Pac was moving up in weight as opposed to draining himself to make a weight, which takes a serious toll on a fighter, especially if that fighter gets into a war having struggled to make weight.

Rios on the other hand has struggled to make weight several times and afterwards gone to war. In my opinion this is what quickly wears fighters down and shortens their careers. Fighters like Rios do not last long, especially when they kill themselves to make weight. This may sound crazy but I think Rios is more spent then Pacquiao and I think Pacquiaos team thinks that too, otherwise they wouldnt have chose him.

I think Pacquiao will be Pacquiao, even if he might be a bit past his prime, it wont matter against a guy like Rios who is considerably less skilled. I see Rios giving a good account of himself with his granite chin. Pac will likely fight a bit like Acosta did against Rios, utilizing superior movement, footwork, and handspeed. Since Rios is not difficult to hit it will only be a matter of time before Rios' granite chin cracks. He showed against Acosta that he can be outboxed fairly easily. If you couple that with the power of Pac, it seems fairly clear. The fight will last as long as Brandons chin can hold up. That could be 1 round and it could be 12 I dont know, I have never seen Rios against a puncher like Pacquiao.

Result: Pacquiao by KO


Important Note: As I was pouring through fight film I came upon an early fight of Brandon Rios against a Joel Ortega. It was interesting because Ortega floored Rios twice and nearly stopped him in the very first round and Ortega is a southpaw. Not sure how relevant this is since it was early in Brandons career but I thought I would note it.