The Return of El Dinamita

On September 14th Juan Manuel Marquez returns to the ring to attempt lift the title of Timothy Bradley. Marquez is coming into this fight riding the high of his vicious but classic KO of Manny Pacquiao and unless something drastically changed in his life, he will likely be in prime condition both mentally and physically. Bradley, on the other hand, has not looked good in his last two fights, a gift decision against Manny Pacquiao and an all out war against Provodnikov. In both of those fights Bradley showed his toughness in taking a tremendous amount of punishment. What he also showed is that he is a very limited fighter, he has alright speed, a good chin, big heart, and that is pretty much it. He lacks punching power, having only 12 KO's in 30 fights, giving him about a 38% KO ratio. This will be his toughest test to date, he is not fighting a Pacquiao who has just converted and seems disinterested in fighting. He will not be fighting the limited but powerful Provodnikov, but a supremely conditioned athlete who has both speed and power, and on top of that Marquez has the experience. The deck is stacked against Bradley.

What should happen
Bradley will give a good account of himself but his chin and heart will not be enough to overcome the all-time great. Marquez will likely take his time and break his opponent down and stop him late but it would not surprise anyone if it went to the cards.

What could happen
Well, I doubt that Bradley will stop Marquez, even if Marquez comes in grossly out of shape. Bradley could do what he did against Pacquiao and get battered around the ring and still get a decision.

What I think will happen
I would not be surprised if Marquez catches Bradley early and stops him, I also would not be surprised if Marquez hurts him but he survives and turns it into a war, that he will ultimately lose. Bradley is limited, and the only reason he did not get stopped against his last two opponents is because he has a great chin and a big heart. Neither will be enough to overcome Marquez. Bradley is going to get knocked out.

Alvarez vs Trout, Prediction

Tomorrow, April 20th, Saul Alvarez takes on Austin Trout in a super welterweight unification bout. Both fighters seem to be in or near their prime, undefeated and ready for big things. I think both are about equal in nearly every physical attribute and skill. However, I believe the main difference is that Trout has gotten here the hard way and is not about to let that be taken from him and Canelo has had practically everything handed to him on a silver platter. He is a good fighter though, and that being said, he has not impressed me at all in recent fights. Knocking out an old Baldomir was an accomplishment but still, up to that point it was a boring fight. Regardless, this should be a fairly fan friendly fight.

What should happen
Canelo should do his thing against Trout, come in and box for 12 rounds and win a somewhat fan friendly scrap, possibly a razor thing decision prompting all the boxing world to cry foul, as usual.

What could happen
Trout could come out and completely dominate Alvarez, but then again, Alvarez could do the same. I think what would be shocking is if this fight ends in a KO either way, but it could happen.

What I think will happen
I think Trout will completely dominate Alvarez. I have never been impressed with Alvarez beating up second tier competition, and struggling in doing so. Trout has a lot to prove and has worked hard to get here, I think that alone will propel him to his biggest win to date.

Why Mayweather's deal with Shotime is a raw deal

Recently boxing superstar Floyd Mayweather announced that he was leaving long time parter HBO for their rival, Shotime. It is alleged to be the most lucrative individual contract in all of sports. It is a 6 fight deal over a 30 month period. I have heard rumors that the contract is allegedly worth well over 200 million, but this is just conjecture as nobody really knows the exact figures. But, is this contract really all it is hyped up to be? Just because there is a lot of money involved does not mean that the contract is good for Floyd. Part of the terms of this contract is that the six fight deal happens within a 30 month period. So Floyd must have these 6 fights in a 2.5 year period, and keep in mind, these are pay per view fights, which involves promotion of the fights. For someone who has been fighting one fight a year, this is a big change. A lot of fights in a short time, which will undoubtedly take its toll.

Let us assume that the Guerrero fight is tougher than expected, but wins as he is expected to, he will have a short time with which to rest, but then his next fight will be announced and the promotion of it will begin. He will then have to begin training camp, which means after his fights now, he cannot go out partying for nearly a whole year until his next fight. I think this puts an unbelievable amount of stress on Floyd, and if he does not fulfill the terms of the contract by fighting 6 times within that 2 and a half year period, then he does not make nearly as much money. So it is a great deal for Shotime, especially if he does not fulfill the terms.

It seems as if Floyd is banking on taking little to no punishment during these fights, which, if you have seen his recent fights, is an impossibility. We have to remember that Floyd had an extensive amateur career that saw him fight around 200 fights. He is also 36 years old and has clearly showed signs of slowing down. He is far more flat footed and easier to hit than before, making him far more exciting of course. However, even not knowing the figures, I think Floyd is getting a raw deal. He made 45 million in his lone fight in 2012 against Miguel Cotto, if he kept up that for six fights, he would have made nearly 300 million dollars, guaranteed. This new deal, however, is based on him completing the 6 fights in the allotted time period of 2 and a half years, meaning if he does not, he will make much less than before, quite a gamble.

Floyd certainly believes in himself enough to sign this contract, and maybe Shotime will allow him to continue hand picking beatable opponents and avoiding any real competition. Keep in mind, its was a few years ago that Cotto was branded as a shot fighter being well past his prime, and yet he was competitive to the final bell against Floyd, another indication that Floyd, while still great, is not the man he used to be. In my opinion this deal will only serve to speed up the aging process and end Floyd's career far sooner than if he continued fighting one fight a year at 45 million a fight.

Donaire vs Rigondeaux, Prediction

Tonight, Donaire faces the young cuban amateur standout and olympian Guillermo Rigondeaux. Rigo, is vastly experienced in terms of amateur fights but only has 11 fights as a pro, and oddly enough already holds a title. He has tremendous hand speed and good power, but, in my estimation thats really all I know. He has 11 fights so I can't really gauge him. Donaire on the other hand is a spectacular professional fighter with speed, power, and unbelievable craft. We know Donaire can compete on the elite level, we don't know about Rigo.

What should happen
It is supposed to be a good fight between two good fighters, even though one of them is a great amatuer and the other a great champion. But, if Rigo is as good as we are told, then it should be a good fight, but Donaire should prevail.

What could happen
Rigo could surprise us all and be far superior to the larger Donaire. Perhaps he could beat Donaire up, or outclass him over 12 rounds?

What I think will happen
While Rigo is a good fighter, highly skilled, Donaire is great and highly skilled with the professional experience to go with that. I think Rigo is well out of his league, no matter how skilled he is. He is going from decent fighters to elite and I don't think it will last very long, or, as long as Donaire allows it to go. I will be surprised if Donaire does not stop him.