On June 7th we are going to see a mega fight, Miguel Cotto takes on middleweight champ Sergio Martinez at a catchweight just under the middleweight limit. It is truly an intriguing matchup as Sergio has been out for some time now and Cotto has been much more active, even being highly competitive with pound for pound king Floyd Mayweather, when Cotto was perceived as being a spent force. Martinez likely has the power advantage, but Cotto is a strong pressure fighter and with Martinez' defensive lapses, Cotto has a real chance in this fight.
What should happen?
Martinez should outbox the smaller and more worn Cotto, and possibly stop him late. He may have a few scares here and there but I am not sure many people think Cotto has the ability to knock Martinez out. Martinez is grossly overrated and has not looked stellar against a good fighter since knocking Paul Williams clean out in two rounds a few years back. But, many think he is the goods, so according to what people think, Martinez should win.
Result: Martinez late KO
What could happen?
There are a couple unexpected things that could happen. Martinez has shown some pretty devastating power, namely against the iron chinned Paul Williams. He is quick and is the bigger man in this fight so its not entirely unlikely that he gets an early knockout. Cotto is usually a very sturdy guy who is very strong, even as the smaller guy he is no pushover. Given that Martinez has some serious defensive liabilities, Cotto could easily take advantage of them, floor Martinez and force him into a brawl, which would suit Cotto just fine. Cotto would then work the body to ensure Martinez isn't going to be able to run. In any even either guy could score an unexpected type win.
Result: Either by KO
What I think will happen?
While I enjoy watching Martinez, I am not sold on him being the marvelous fighter he claims to be. He has looked very mediocre against very tough but limited opposition. He fights carelessly, very carelessly, which does make for fan friendly fights, but that could cost him against Cotto. On the other hand I wonder what Cotto has left. The man has been fighting everyone since he turned pro, he has had it tough and proven every time that he belongs in that ring with the best. He is 2-1 in his last three fights, however, he lost a disputed decision to Austin Trout, one I thought that he won, and against Floyd Mayweather. Against the latter he really showed that he is not a spent force as he was competitive up until the end. I think Martinez will make a fight of it, giving Cotto problems early on, but I think that Cotto will eventually pressure Martinez so much that Martinez will oblige to fight in the trenches, and it is there that Cotto will tear up his body and wear his man down. Unlike the overweight and out of shape pothead in Chavez Jr. Cotto is coming in prepared and will likely beat Martinez down in a bloody affair.
Result: Cotto by late KO
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