Canelo vs Jacobs: Fight Predictions

              On Saturday May 4th boxings two best middleweights collide. Alvarez is coming off a win against the murderous punching Gennady Golovkin. A few fights back Jacobs fought Golovkin in a very close contest, one in which I had Jacobs ahead. Despite being knocked down in that fight, Jacobs seemed to take Golovkins punches well and gave as good as he got but never seemed to hurt Golovkin, but then again his chin is just as strong as his punch. Likewise Canelo fought Golovkin twice, beating him once, and never seemed hurt by anything Golovkin landed. Both Jacobs and Canelo can punch but I give Jacobs the edge in power here. Canelo has never tasted the canvas that I am aware of while Jacobs has been down at least three times but lately has shown a much different demeanor and much stronger chin.

What should happen?
In all honesty these are two very skilled boxers and it should be a technical match from start to finish. Basically we are in for a chessmatch in which both fighters respect each others power and are unwilling to take any big risk and get caught with something. This may be a case in which the match is so even the rounds will automatically go to the aggressor for making the fight happen. I think most people are expecting a technical boxing match in which Canelo comes out on top.

Result: Canelo UD12

What could happen?
In this really anything could happen. We have seen a different Jacobs when he is fighting an elite fighter. Focused, calculating, and willing to engage and get hit to land a combination. He could very well be too big, too fast, and too powerful for Canelo and could wear him down overtime. With Jacobs superior punching power he could stop Canelo late or even outbox him soundly.

Result: Jacobs late KO or UD12

What I think will happen?
I am torn in this one. I really like Jacobs as a person and a fighter. I want to see him beat Canelo but in order to do that he is going to have to stop him as I do not see him winning a decision in a close fight. If he boxes well and lands combinations he could frustrate Canelo who likes to fight in spurts and at a slow pace. He has to keep a fast pace and not let Canelo rest. Jacobs will likely come in much heavier against Canelo like he did with Golovkin, which could give him an edge. However, as much as I want to see Jacobs stop Canelo I have to go with logic and reason. That tells me this will be a chessmatch and Canelo will eek out a decision.

Result: Canelo 12UD

Crawford vs Khan: Predictions

             On Saturday April 20th Terence Crawford takes on Amir Khan with his welterweight title on the line. This looks to be a solid matchup between Crawford, a highly skilled boxer puncher who can seemingly do it all and Khan, with lightning fast hands and good power to back it up. I personally cannot wait for this fight as I think it will be a good one. Terence Crawford is one of my favorite current fighters and he has proven himself to be one of the best in boxing right now. Can Khan dethrone Crawford and re-establish himself as an elite or will Crawford put Khan down and out virtually ending his career? This remains to be seen.

What should happen?
Crawford will likely have some trouble in the early going with Khans speed and possibly even his power. Khan is also very mobile so Crawford may have to track him down in the early going and try to catch Khan while he is punching. Crawford may take a backseat and allow Khan to be the aggressor in order to counter his shots, and Crawford has proven to be a deadly counter puncher. Given that Khan had trouble in his last fight with Samuel Vargas, even being put on the canvas, its hard to see how Khan could win this barring him catching Crawford early, and Crawford has a tendency to start slow. Crawford should win this matchup in the mid to late part of the fight.

Result: Crawford by KO

What could happen?
Khan could certainly surprise us all and use his speed and mobility to outpoint Crawford, assuming Crawford cannot adjust, and he has shown a remarkable ability to adjust during a fight. That being said Khan is a basic fighter with good speed and power, but his mobility could save him this fight. If he gets in and gets out quickly he could rack up points and frustrate Crawford.

Result: Khan 12UD

What I think will happen?
I am going with Crawford. I think Crawford will take his time and methodically break Khan down and draw him into his fight, either by baiting him so he can counter or drawing him into a firefight where Crawford will catch him. Being that Crawford can punch its easy to see him winning as soon as he nails Khan with a good shot, pretty much ending Khans career as a serious contender. Khans last fight against Vargas, he looked impressive in spots, and in other spots he looked vulnerable. Vargas was not only able to easily catch Khan on multiple occasions, he was able to put Khan down. If Crawford, or should I say when, catches Khan, its over. I do not see this going the distance, I see Crawford by mid to late fight KO.

Result: Crawford KO6

GGG

Aside from Floyd Mayweather, most of the talk in boxing is about Gennady Golovkin, also known as GGG. He is labeled as the most feared fighter, the most avoided, and so on. He is the middleweight world champion and does possess a 90% knockout ratio, but is he legit? One thing we know about GGG is that he can most definetly punch, he has pretty good skills and he is fun to watch. But even though he is the middleweight champ he has not really fought anyone that would tell us who he really is. Sure he has beaten some tough and rugged guys but he has not really stepped up to that upper level and shown himself yet. He hasn't faced the likes of Sergio Martinez, the former middleweight champion, or Daniel Jacobs, Peter Quillen, or Andy Lee even. While these guys are not necessarily proven or great just yet, they do pose much more of a danger to Golovkin's undefeated record than any of his previous opponents do.

There are many who claim that Golovkin is being avoided, and if he were merely a contender I could concede that point. But he is not, he has a belt and therefore it is rather difficult to avoid him. He is the man you have to beat to get the strap, so you cannot avoid him unless you go up or down in weight.

I cannot really tell you how good or great Golovkin is because I have only seen him against limited opposition or smaller opponents coming up in weight. I cannot really gauge how good or great he is just yet. Yes, he can punch but can he take a punch. Yes he can box a bit, but can he overcome a great boxer. We just don't know these things yet. So while I do enjoy watching him and I hope he does prove himself, I have to say as of right now he is still somewhat of an unknown.

His name has been mentioned as a possibility for Floyd Mayweather. Do I think Floyd will take the fight? Probably not. Golovkin is bigger than he is and is considered a murderous puncher. He is not necessarily a big draw, but then again after the Pacquiao fight nobody would be. But can he even threaten Floyd? With that kind of punching power yes there is always a chance, but Floyd is a supreme boxer, even at 38. Unless Golovkin can bring the heat for 12 rounds solid, he does not really stand much of a chance. However, if he can pressure Floyd and work the body well for 12 rounds it is a good possibility that he can win.

This weekend Golovkin squares off against Willie Monroe Jr. which should be another knockout win for Golovkin.

Alvarez vs Kirkland Post Fight Analysis

                   May 9th boxing fans were treated to a pretty fantastic, albeit short, fight. Canelo Alvarez completely destroyed James Kirkland in under three rounds, and in very brutal fashion. The first saw Kirkland come right at Canelo, and he did land a few punches that backed Canelo up but that only lasted for a short time. Just as soon as Canelo landed Kirkland was hurt. Almost everything that followed also hurt Kirkland who clearly was not the fearsome Kirkland we are used to seeing. Before long Canelo had Kirkland down. From that point on Kirkland had pretty much given up and was just there. His punches lacked the ferocity that they usually have and he seemed to have little to no skill or any real idea of what to do.

                  Canelo on the otherhand was brilliant. For a 24 year old he is very wise. He took his time and broke Kirkland down. In the third he caught Kirkland coming in with a devastating uppercut and to Kirklands credit he got up. But it was not long before he would be visiting the canvas again. Canelo jabbed to the body and came up full force with a right hand that effectively ended Kirkland and toppled him to the canvas in a heap. Canelo did exactly what he was supposed to do, shine. He showed that he can deal with pressure, and he showed it in very devastating fashion. But the question lingers about Kirkland and his long time former trainer Ann Wolfe.

                 Is Kirkland nothing without Ann Wolfe? We have to conclude that he is obviously not the same fighter without her. When he ditched her before he looked lack luster, and then in the next fight was brutalized by the light punching Nobuhiro Ishida. When he is not with her he seems to be lacking. He does not have the same ferocity or hunger that he does when he is with her. With Wolfe he seems to be a bloodthirsty maniac who will stop at nothing to end you. In fact, he doesnt even get that dinged up. Against Canelo he came out like he was that fighter, but it quickly vanished once the firefight started. She seems to bring something out of Kirkland that nobody else can, and that speaks volumes for Wolfe as a trainer. Kirkland is a sub-par fighter without her but a seemingly unstoppable beast with her. Her stock has to have shot through the roof after this.

             I do not mean in any way to take away from Canelos hard fought victory and I am not saying that he would have lost had Kirkland had Wolfe, but it would certainly have been a very different fight. We can say for certain that he is a different fighter with her. He may not have won, but it would have been a much better fight. Now the sky is the limit for Canelo who no doubt looks to be the next big star in boxing after Floyd leaves the game. As for Kirkland, I do not think that even Wolfe can salvage him after this beating. In the post fight interview Kirkland sounded as if he had been fighting for 20 years. His speech sounded slow and slurred and he seemed as if he didnt even know what was going on. Granted, he just lost by KO but the effects of that loss seemed to have taken effect immediately. I doubt James will recover from this, even if he gets Wolfe back into his corner. But it was fun while it lasted and thanks for the wars James.

Canelo vs Kirkland Pre-Fight Analysis

This Saturday boxing fans will be treated to a great matchup, Saul "canelo" Alvarez vs James Kirkland. On paper this does seem to be a great matchup and will, again on paper, shape up to be a great fight. There are many factors in this fight that could make it end up as a dud or a war. First there is James Kirkland. The man seemed unstoppable when he was with Ann Wolfe, without her he looked less than stellar, even losing by brutal 1st round TKO by the light punching Nobuhiro Ishida. This fight he has opted not to train with Wolfe for reasons we have yet to learn. However, his current trainer may be unknown but has worked in the corner with Kirkland so he is familiar with Kirkland and I think that could prove the difference. Wolfe seems to be able to bring something out of Kirkland that nobody else has. Perhaps his current trainer can do this, and if he can that would be very good for boxing fans.

Saul Alvarez, or Canelo, is a hugely popular fighter in Mexico, namely because he is a white red headed Mexican. Personally I am not sold on Canelo. I have not really seen him shine as of yet, and after 46 fights I thought I would have seen why he is a star. Even in his brutal knockout of the usually iron chinned Baldomir, Canelo looked very average up until that point. Against people like Rhodes and Hatton he should have really shined, but to me looked like a mediocre fighter, a good solid guy but mediocre. Mayweather put a punctuation on this point as he made Canelo look like your average run of the mill fighter, but then again Floyd does that to most everyone. The best I have seen Canelo look was against Angulo, who basically stood directly in front of Canelo with no head movement whatsoever for 10 rounds. Keep in mind knocking out Angulo took Kirkland 6 rounds, but he also got knocked down. I would also argue that Kirkland fought the better version of Angulo.

What Should Happen?
I think everyone is expecting a war in which Canelo will come out on top. If Kirkland is in good shape and Canelo can withstand the onslaught then it should be Canelo by a decision. Even though Canelo has not shown world class punching power it is possible that the Kirkland that fought Ishida comes in to fight, in that case it would be an early night for Canelo. But for what it is worth I think we should expect Canelo to win by decision.

Result: Canelo 12UD

What Could Happen?
If Kirkland comes in as the Kirkland we know and love then it is going to be a brutal affair. While Canelo was hurt by Cotto, he has otherwise shown a pretty good chin so this could come down to will and conditioning. If James is in his normal condition then there is no reason to think he cannot brutalize Canelo for the majority of the fight. I am not quite sure what Canelo has in him as a fighter. He has shown a tendency to slow way down in the later part of the fight. If James can keep up a fast pace even in the later rounds then Canelo is in real trouble. In this instance its possible, and very likely, that Kirkland gets a late round stoppage in a very brutal fight.

Result: Kirkland by late TKO

What I Think Will Happen?
I am not sure to be honest. Depending on what Kirkland comes in depends on what kind of fight we are in for, a long brutal war of attrition or an early ko loss for Kirkland. I just do not know how Kirkland is going to be with his new trainer. We know Canelo, he fights the same way every single time out. Decent boxer, good chin, decent speed but nothing really spectacular. At least we haven't really seen anything spectacular from him. If the real Kirkland comes in, he is going to test Canelo and test him early. I will say this, if the real Kirkland comes in, he will win. If the fake Kirkland comes in, he loses. I am just not impressed with Canelo.

Result: ?

Mayweather vs Pacquiao Pre-Fight Analysis

On May 2nd, Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather will finally meet in the ring. Its been so long I honestly thought it would never happen. After Pacquiao lost to Bradley, and then his brutal KO loss at the hands of his nemesis Marquez, I thought this matchup was all but done. Thankfully I was wrong. I am not going to go on about my opinion as to why Mayweather made this fight so difficult to make or why Manny gave in to all the demands, I am going to strictly analyze the fighters and the potential outcome. We all know what Manny does, he comes forward, and we all know what Floyd is a master of, defense. So how exactly will this play out? I think Floyds only chance is to be defensive, that is his strong suit, laying back in his defensive shell and countering. This gives him the best chance to catch Pacquiao a-la Marquez. Even though Floyd is not that hard of a puncher, you do not need to be when countering as the momentum of the other fighter usually generates enough force for a knockout. Pacquiao has to be cautious in not falling into that trap of going after Mayweather when he is in his defensive shell, he can get in and work the body, as Floyd gives that up in his defensive shell, but then get out before Mayweather, who I think is much slower than Pacquiao, gets a chance at hitting him.

What Should Happen?
I think we all know the answer to this, Floyd should do what Floyd has done, win. Generally Floyd plays it very cautious in the early parts of the fight and as his opponent tires he turns up the heat. This has worked with great effect in the past and there is no reason to doubt it wont come May 2nd. Or is there? Floyd will have to be very cautious and be on his A game as Manny is faster and hits much harder. On top of that he gives all kinds of angles while throwing a tremendous amount of punches, whereas Floyd generally is not a very active fighter. So he need to rely on his defense and counter, I doubt he will get a knockout but its not out of the question. The thing with this is that Floyd needs to be utterly perfect and his last few fights have shown that he is not what he used to be, getting caught by Maidana and hurt. Maidana is much slower than Pacquiao. I do not see Floyd taking too many risks in this fight, he is going to try and box his way to a decision, an attempt to go at Pacquiao will prove fatal.

Result: Mayweather 12UD

What Could Happen?
Floyd seems like an unbeatable fighter, seems like it. This often happens when a fighter is great, there is an aura of invincibility about them that people become unable to see what flaws they do have. They just accept this idea that they are unbeatable. Floyd is not unbeatable, he is unbeaten. He has a very curious habit that I highlighted in my blueprint on Mayweather, when he punches, he punches very wide when not in his defensive shell. His chin is completely unprotected and his opposing hand is down. In Floyds fight with Corley we see Corley trying to take advantage of this, and he was a mediocre counterpuncher and had great success in the early going. You could see him timing Floyd and punching with Floyd, but was not fast enough to land before him. Pacquiao is and he has demonstrated that he is a brutal counterpuncher. If Floyd becomes aggressive this will become a serious problem for him. (See my earlier post on The Mayweather Blueprint which is complete with pictures to demonstrate this flaw). So if Floyd at any point becomes aggressive Manny will undoubtedly hurt him. If he does not knock Floyd out at first, he will hurt him. We have seen in the past that Floyd is more than just a pretty boxer, he wants to get back at someone who hurt him and he will likely try. This will open him up more for the precise power punching of Pacquiao and effectively end his night in brutal fashion.

Result: Pacquiao KO

What I Think Will Happen?
I think Pacquiao plays its smart and safe in the early going. He is probably not going to be overly aggressive but try and get Floyd to take the lead. This could present the fans with a bit of a bore fest for a bit as neither fighter will likely take the lead, both looking to counter. It is only a matter of time before Floyd gets tagged good, maybe a few times even, before he tries to take it to Manny. The moment Floyd becomes the aggressor the fight is Pacquiaos. The defensive lapse I highlighted when Floyd is the aggressor is known by the Pacquiao camp and they, I am sure, have worked on nailing him when he comes forward. Since Mayweather has been hurt by Corley, Judah, and Shane, all with one punch, what is going to happen when Pacquiao lands successive punches?

Result: Pacquiao KO 1-9

Wilder vs Scott post fight

Last saturday we got to see another bum of the month for American hopeful Deontay Wilder. I found it odd that he chose to fight his friend Malik Scott as opposed to someone else that is not his friend and possibly more accomplished. Allegedly he gets a shot at the Stiverne vs. Arreola winner, but why does he deserve that? He has literally fought nothing but bums and spent fighters, and in this case his friend. In my opinion from what I observed Malik took a dive for his buddy. After he got knocked down it seemed pretty clear, to me at least, that he was acting and doing a bad job at it. They ran out of bums so they had to get a friend to do a favor apparently. However, if he does fight Stiverne or Arreola then we will get to see him tested and at that point its put up or shut up and if he wins, good for him, I would be happy to see an American heavyweight champ, even if he is a girl puncher.

I dont know, I am just unimpressed with Wilder, I do not fall for the same tricks that was used to build up Tyson and others, you judge by the video below and tell me if Scott was really knocked out.