Martinez vs Cotto, pre-fight analysis

On June 7th we are going to see a mega fight, Miguel Cotto takes on middleweight champ Sergio Martinez at a catchweight just under the middleweight limit. It is truly an intriguing matchup as Sergio has been out for some time now and Cotto has been much more active, even being highly competitive with pound for pound king Floyd Mayweather, when Cotto was perceived as being a spent force. Martinez likely has the power advantage, but Cotto is a strong pressure fighter and with Martinez' defensive lapses, Cotto has a real chance in this fight.


What should happen?
Martinez should outbox the smaller and more worn Cotto, and possibly stop him late. He may have a few scares here and there but I am not sure many people think Cotto has the ability to knock Martinez out. Martinez is grossly overrated and has not looked stellar against a good fighter since knocking Paul Williams clean out in two rounds a few years back. But, many think he is the goods, so according to what people think, Martinez should win.
Result: Martinez late KO

What could happen?
There are a couple unexpected things that could happen. Martinez has shown some pretty devastating power, namely against the iron chinned Paul Williams. He is quick and is the bigger man in this fight so its not entirely unlikely that he gets an early knockout. Cotto is usually a very sturdy guy who is very strong, even as the smaller guy he is no pushover. Given that Martinez has some serious defensive liabilities, Cotto could easily take advantage of them, floor Martinez and force him into a brawl, which would suit Cotto just fine. Cotto would then work the body to ensure Martinez isn't going to be able to run. In any even either guy could score an unexpected type win.
Result: Either by KO

What I think will happen?
While I enjoy watching Martinez, I am not sold on him being the marvelous fighter he claims to be. He has looked very mediocre against very tough but limited opposition. He fights carelessly, very carelessly, which does make for fan friendly fights, but that could cost him against Cotto. On the other hand I wonder what Cotto has left. The man has been fighting everyone since he turned pro, he has had it tough and proven every time that he belongs in that ring with the best. He is 2-1 in his last three fights, however, he lost a disputed decision to Austin Trout, one I thought that he won, and against Floyd Mayweather. Against the latter he really showed that he is not a spent force as he was competitive up until the end. I think Martinez will make a fight of it, giving Cotto problems early on, but I think that Cotto will eventually pressure Martinez so much that Martinez will oblige to fight in the trenches, and it is there that Cotto will tear up his body and wear his man down. Unlike the overweight and out of shape pothead in Chavez Jr. Cotto is coming in prepared and will likely beat Martinez down in a bloody affair.
Result: Cotto by late KO

Pacquiao vs Bradley II, Pre Fight Analysis

I know this is a bit early but I thought I would get this out of the way now rather then possibly forgetting about it later. On April 12 Bradley will fight Pacquiao once again and hopefully the controversy from their first fight will be put to rest once and for all.

Pacquiao is coming off a 12 round beat down of always tough Brandon Rios who acted as a human punching bag for 12 rounds, really doing nothing for Pacquiao other than giving him a bit of a workout. Even in that I seen things that told me that Pacquiao is not the same man he was, still a destructive force, but more on the downside, past the bell curve so to speak. His footwork did not look nearly as sharp has before, and his footwork was amazing and enabled him to hit you 10 times and get out of the way before you threw a single punch. His hand speed is still there and his punching power hasn't likely faded, but his legs have and it seems that his killer instinct died with it.

Bradley on the other hand is coming off a decisive and very impressing one sided win over the great Juan Manuel Marquez, the man who knocked out Pacquiao so brutally. Here is the thing, if you can box Marquez and make him look ordinary, you are a damn good fighter and that is what Bradley did. By contrast his fight before that was against the Siberian Rocky Ruslan Provodnikov, and it was an all out war. Bradley got knocked down a couple times and at times looked completely out on his feet. I still have no idea how he was able to weather that storm and come back to win, but he did. The man is tough as nails and as his last fight proved, he is coming into his prime if he isn't already there. It should be interesting.

What should happen?
I think everyone is expecting Pacquiao to win and this time win decisively. He is not going to casually box this time but likely go in there more aggressive than he did last time. Pac should be on his 'A' game and beat up Bradley and eventually stop him late. Bradley cannot be in many more wars so in this instance Pac stops him late.
Result: Pacquiao late KO

What could happen?
Pacquiao could get over aggressive and get caught with a counter. The difference between getting caught by Marquez and Bradley is huge, Marquez can punch and Bradley can't. So he might knock Pacquiao down but likely not out, unless he walks him into a counter. Bradley could also school Pacquiao and if he boxes like he did against Marquez, this certainly could happen, he could embarrass Pacquiao.
Result: Bradley UD12

What I think will happen?
Bradley comes in smart like he did against Marquez and looks to counter as an on rushing Pacquiao tries to knock him out. Bradley counters Pacquiao for as long as Pacquiao is willing to take it, he out points Pacquiao in every aspect, keeping calm and not getting drawn into a war, Bradley is going to silence his critics on April 12th and I would not be surprised if he walks Pac down and stops him late, all but ending Pac's career.
Result: Bradley Late KO or UD12, a clear decision this time.